漳河流域洪水预报方案修编分析  

Revision of Flood Forecasting Scheme for Zhanghe River Basin

作　　者：杨欣磊 杨鹏[2] YANG Xin-lei;YANG peng(Tianjin Lonwin Technology Development Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300170,China;Hydrology Bureau of Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission,Tianjin 300170,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市龙网科技发展有限公司,天津300170 [2]海河水利委员会水文局,天津300170

出　　处：《海河水利》2023年第7期36-43,76,共9页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：针对海河流域漳卫河水系水文气象特点和漳河石梁、匡门口、观台3个水文断面以上区域的当前下垫面情况和洪水特性,利用1995年以后洪水资料,参照《水文情报预报规范》(GBT 22482-2008)要求,采用P+Pa-R、单位线产汇流模型和马斯京根河道流量分段演算模型对漳河石梁、匡门口、观台3个水文站点进行预报方案修编和模型参数率定。修编后的预报方案精度达到乙级标准,方案整体预报精度能够满足实时作业预报的需要。Based on the hydrological and meteorological characteristics of Zhanghe River and Weihe River system in the Haihe River Basin,as well as the current land surface conditions and flood characteristics in the upper reaches of Shiliang,Kuangmenkou,and Guantai hydrological sections,this paper utilizes flood data from 1995 onwards to revise the flood forecasting scheme and calibrate model parameters for these three hydrological stations.Following the requirements outlined in the Specification for Hydrological Information and Forecasting(GBT22482-2008),the P+Pa~R method,unit hydrograph routing model,and Muskingum channel flow routing model are employed.The revised forecasting scheme has achieved an accuracy level that meets Class B standards,while the overall forecast accuracy of the scheme is able to fulfill the requirements of real-time operational forecasting.

关 键 词：预报方案 模型参数率定 洪水预报精度 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV124