基于前景理论的产消者在本地能源交易中的优化决策  

Prospect Theory Facilitated Prosumer Decision-making in Local Energy Trading

作　　者：张雅君 杨心刚 宋杰 顾承红 李芙蓉[2] ZHANG Yajun;YANG Xingang;SONG Jie;GU Chenghong;LI Furong(State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Research Instiute,Hongkou District,Shanghai 200437,China;Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering,University of Bath,Bath BA27AY,UK)

机构地区：[1]国网上海市电力公司电力科学研究院,上海市虹口区200437 [2]巴斯大学电气工程系,英国巴斯BA27AY

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2023年第4期355-361,共7页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：英国工程和自然科学研究委员会(Engineeringand Physical Sciences Research Council,EPSRC)项目(SupergenEnergy Networks Hub,EP/S00078X/1)。

摘　　要：在低碳政策激励下,分布式能源资源在电力系统中蓬勃发展,使其拥有者成为电力产消者。在这种新形势下,本地能源交易成为促进分布式能源发展的重要手段。为此,提出了一种非合作交易模式,使分布式能源资源可通过参与本地能源交易实现最大化资源利用。新能源的不确定性问题采用条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)建模。在该框架下,产消者在本地能源交易中的行为采用前景理论进行建模,更实际地反映其在本地交易中对盈亏的不同看法,而非假设产消者为完全理性。在此基础上,开发了最优定价算法以帮助其在本地能源交易中利润最大化。采用4个相关算例验证了通过该方法引导产消者的交易行为以实现利润最大化的有效性。Incentivized by low-carbon policies,distributed energy resources(DERs)thrive in power systems.Consumers equipped with generation capability enabled by DERs become prosumers.In this new environment,local energy trading becomes an essential arrangement for enabling DERs penetration.This paper proposes a novel non-cooperative trading model for prosumers to realize the effective utilization of DERs by participating in local energy trading.The local energy market is structured by following the wholesale market model.To solve the uncertainty issue,renewable generation is modelled based on CVaR(conditional value at risk).Under the framework,prosumer trading behaviours are formulated by prospect theory to reflect personal diminishing sensitivity in their decision-making.Instead of assuming a completely rational character setting,the model is more practical to reflect different personal perceptions of gain and loss in local trading.Based on this model,the prospect theory-based algorithm is developed to obtain the optimal pricing strategies for prosumers to maximize profits in local energy trading.Four case studies are provided to illustrate prosumers’trading behaviours and quantify profits,which prove the effectiveness of the proposed method in guiding the trading behaviour of prosumers to maximise profits.

关 键 词：前景理论 本地能源交易 产消者 可再生能源 可再生能源不确定性 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F407.61