我国农村孕产妇和儿童死亡率发展趋势预测与分析  

Forecast and analysis of the development trend of maternal and child mortality rates in rural China

作　　者：张彬[1] 张龙秀 程龙慧[1] 刘辉[1] ZHANG Bin;ZHANG Longxiu;CHENG Longhui;LIU Hui(Anhui Provincial Maternal and Child Health Hospital,Child and Maternal Medical Centre of Anhui Medical University,Hefei,Anhui 230001,China;Imaging Centre of Anhui Provincial Children's Hospital,Children's Medical Centre of Anhui Medical University,Hefei,Anhui 230041,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省妇幼保健院/安徽医科大学妇幼医学中心,安徽合肥230001 [2]安徽省儿童医院影像中心/安徽医科大学儿童医学中心,安徽合肥230041

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2023年第6期436-440,452,共6页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

基　　金：中国妇幼保健协会妇幼健康领域科研创新技术项目(ZGFYBJXH-KY2106);安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2021CX520);中国疾病预防控制中心妇幼保健中心母婴营养与健康研究项目(2022FYH007);安徽省教育厅科学研究项目资助(2022AH050630)。

摘　　要：目的 构建我国农村孕产妇死亡率(MMR)、婴儿死亡率(IMR)、新生儿死亡率(NMR)和五岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)发展趋势预测模型,预测2021—2025年4个指标数据变化趋势。方法 基于灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,利用国家统计局公布的《2021年中国统计年鉴》2010-2020年的数据预测2021-2025年我国农村MMR、IMR、NMR和U5MR。结果 我国农村孕产妇死亡率预测模型:x~((1))(t+1)=641.263e~(-0.0411t)+671.363,预测值分别为17.12/10万、16.43/10万、15.77/10万、15.14/10万、14.53/10万;婴儿死亡率预测模型:x~((1))(t+1)=-891.963e~(-0.035t)+898.063预测值分别为4.97‰、4.25‰、3.56‰、2.88‰、2.23‰;新生儿死亡率预测模型:x~((1))(t+1)=-100.323e~(-0.0956t)+110.323,预测值分别为3.52‰、3.2‰、2.91‰、2.64‰、2.40‰。五岁以下儿童死亡率预测模型:x~((1))(t+1)=-228.606e~(-0.0827t)+248.606预测值分别为7.94‰、7.31‰、6.73‰、6.2‰、5.70‰.结论 运用GM(1,1)模型进行拟合和预测效果较好,2021-2025年我国农村MMR、IMR、NMR、U5MR的预测结果呈逐年下降趋势。Objective To build a prediction model for the development trend of China's rural MMR,IMR,NMR,and U5MR,and to predict the data change trend of 4 indicators from 2021 to 2025.Methods Based on the gray GM(1,1)prediction model,forecast of China's rural MMR,IMR NMR,and U5MR for 2021-2025 was carried out using data of year 2010-2020 from China Statistical Yearbook 2021 published by the National Bureau of Statistics.Results The prediction model of maternal mortality rate in rural China was x^((1))(t+1)=641.263e^(-0.0411t)+671.363,the predictive values being 17.12/105,16.43/105,15.77/105,15.14/105,and 14.53/105,respectively.The prediction model of infant mortality rate was x^((1))(t+1)=-891.963e^(-0.035t)+898.063,the predictive values being 4.97‰,4.25‰,3.56‰,2.88‰and 2.23‰respectively.The prediction model of neonatal mortality rate was x^((1))(t+1)=-100.323e^(-0.0956t)+110.323,the predictive values being 3.52‰,3.2‰,2.91‰,2.64‰and 2.40‰,respectively.The prediction model of the mortality rate of children under five was x^((1))(t+1)=-228.606e^(-0.0827t)+248.606,the predictive values being 7.94‰,7.31‰,6.73‰,6.2‰and 5.70‰,respectively.Conclusions The GM(1,1)model achieves a better imitative and predictive effect.The forecast results of MMR,IMR,NMR,and U5MR in rural China from 2021 to 2025 show a decreasing trend year by year.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 孕产妇死亡率 婴儿死亡率 新生儿死亡率 五岁以下儿童死亡率 预测 农村卫生 

分 类 号：R17[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]