基于气象指数的龙泉驿水蜜桃气象灾害保险产品设计  

Design of Longquanyi Peach Meteorological DisasterInsurance Product based on Meteorological Index

作　　者：周耀鑫 王增武[1] 姬莉雯 王晨丞 ZHOU Yaoxin;WANG Zengwu;JI Liwen;WANG Chencheng(College of Resources and Environment,Chengdu University of InformationTechnology,Chengdu 610225,China;Sichuan Meteoro-logical Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学资源环境学院,四川成都610225 [2]四川省气象灾害防御技术中心,四川成都610072

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2023年第4期492-496,共5页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

摘　　要：气象灾害会对水蜜桃产业造成严重的经济损失,开展水蜜桃气象指数保险业务,对降低其损失风险有积极意义。以成都市龙泉驿水蜜桃产业为例,分别对低温灾害和连阴雨灾害两种主要气象灾害进行指数构建,进行水蜜桃气象灾害保险产品设计研究。首先根据灾害指数分级标准确定低温和连阴雨灾害等级,再基于气象站点实测气温及降水量数据进行灾害发生频率统计,根据统计结果和比例赔付法确定灾害赔付方案,最后使用蒙特卡洛方法进行灾害赔付模拟,结果显示赔付高于当年保费的概率为14.29%,通过30 a历史气象数据赔付率回溯,赔付率在45%~70%,说明设计的赔付方案合理。Meteorological disasters will cause serious economic losses to the peach industry,so the development of peach weather index insurance business has positive significance for reducing the risk of losses.Based on the peach industry in Longquanyi of Chengdu,this paper constructs the index of low temperature disaster and continuous rain disaster,and studies the design of peach meteorological disaster insurance products.Firstly,the disaster grade of low temperature and continuous rain is determined according to the classification standard of disaster index.Then,the frequency of disaster occurrence is counted based on the temperature and precipitation data of meteorological stations.The disaster compensa-tion scheme is designed according to the statistical results and the proportional compensation method,and stimulated u-sing Monte Carlo method.The results show that the probability that the compensation will be higher than the current year’s premium is about 14.29%.By analyzing the 30-year historical meteorological data compensation rate,the com-pensation rate is between 45%and 70%,indicating that the designed compensation plan is reasonable.

关 键 词：气象指数 龙泉驿 蒙特卡洛方法 保险产品 水蜜桃 

分 类 号：S162.54[农业科学—农业气象学]