中国市域农业现代化发展时空演进与空间溢出机制  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Spatial Spillover Mechanism of Agricultural Modernization Development in China

作　　者：马楠[1] 陈若雪 沈体雁[2] MA Nan;CHEN Ruoxue;SHEN Tiyan(School of Economics,South-Central Minzu University,Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China;School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学经济学院,中国湖北武汉430074 [2]北京大学政府管理学院,中国北京100871

出　　处：《经济地理》2023年第6期156-165,共10页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20CMZ028)。

摘　　要：农业现代化发展是我国实现乡村振兴和共同富裕的重要战略支点。在对农业现代化相关文献梳理基础上,构建包含农业发展水平、农业结构水平、农业生产效率水平、农民收入水平的农业现代化发展评价指标体系,在全国范围选取293个市域为研究区域,综合运用全局莫兰指数、空间滞后模型、空间误差模型等方法研究2009—2019年中国市域农业现代化发展时空演进与空间溢出机制。研究表明:(1)农业现代化发展平均水平“粮食主产区>粮食产销平衡区>粮食主销区”,发展水平的空间分布格局由“二元结构”经过“中心—外围”结构后“裂变”得更加均衡。(2)农业现代化发展水平不断提升,高水平档的市域数量逐渐增多。(3)农业现代化发展演进由“低速发展平台期”经过“快速发展跃升期”后,现已进入“快速发展稳定期”。(4)城市农业现代化发展通过“交通运输”“区位环境”“农业经济联系”和“产业互补性发展”4种机制对周围城市农业现代化发展产生正向空间溢出效应,其中“产业互补性发展”的溢出效用最强。研究结论可为进一步推进我国农业现代化和农业高质量发展提供参考借鉴。The agricultural modernization development is an important strategic fulcrums for China to realize rural revitalization and common prosperity.On the basis of reviewing relevant literatures on agricultural modernization,this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for agricultural modernization development,including agricultural development level,agricultural structure level,agricultural production efficiency level,and farmers'income level.Using the global Moran Index,spatial lagged model,spatial error model and other methods,it comprehensively analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution and spillover mechanism of agricultural modernization in 293 cities of China from2009 to 2019.The research shows that:1)The average level of agricultural modernization development ranking from high to low is main grain producing area,balanced area between grain production and marketing,main grain selling area,respectively,and the spatial distribution pattern of development level shifts from"dual structure"to"center periphery"structure and shows more balanced characteristic.2)The development level of agricultural modernization is constantly improving,and the number of high-level cities is gradually increasing.3)After the development and evolution of agricultural modernization from the"low-speed development platform period"to the"rapid development jump period",it has now entered the"rapid development stable period".4)The development of agricultural modernization has a positive spatial spillover effect on surrounding cities by four mechanisms of"transportation","location environment","agricultural economic links"and"industrial complementary development",among which"industrial complementary development"has the strongest spillover effect.This has important reference value for promoting agricultural modernization and agricultural high-quality development.

关 键 词：农业现代化 粮食主产区 梯度分级 交通运输 农业经济联系 农业机械化 国家粮食安全战略 

分 类 号：F329.9[经济管理—产业经济]