1982—2021年黄、渤海表层温度变化的线性和非线性特征分析  

Linear and nonlinear trend analyses of sea surface temperature in the Bohai and Yellow Seas of China during 1982-2021

作　　者：孙艺迪 王德[1,2] 高志强 高猛[4] 王跃启 SUN Yi-di;WANG De;GAO Zhi-qiang;GAO Meng;WANG Yue-qi(CAS Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation,Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Yantai 264003,China;Shandong Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes,Yantai 264003,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Mathematics and Information Sciences,Yantai University,Yantai 264000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室,山东烟台264003 [2]山东省海岸带环境过程重点实验室,山东烟台264003 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]烟台大学数学与信息科学学院,山东烟台264000

出　　处：《海洋科学》2023年第5期41-53,共13页Marine Sciences

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2022MD028,ZR2020KF031);国家自然科学基金项目(42030402)。

摘　　要：近几十年,全球气候变化背景下的海面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)呈现越来越显著的非线性和非稳定变化特征,并且在局部海区表现得更加明显。为全面认识海面温度的长期演变过程,本研究基于1982—2021年间AVHRR海表温度遥感数据,利用多项式回归趋势分类方法,系统分析了黄海和渤海(黄渤海)SST近40 a的长期变化及时空分布格局。结果显示:从1982年到2021年,黄渤海SST以0.020℃/a的平均速度净增加约0.772℃,增温幅度呈现明显的空间异质性和季节非对称性;从空间上来看,SST变化趋势呈现明显的西高东低的特征;从季节上来看,SST变化趋势呈现春夏季高、秋冬季低的特征;受2012年前后全球增温暂缓事件的影响,黄渤海58.87%的区域表层SST呈现显著的非线性(二次或三次多项式)趋势,20.62%的区域表现为隐藏的非线性趋势,4.21%的区域未呈现明显的趋势。结果表明,在海面温度长期变化研究中应进一步关注其空间异质性、季节对称性以及趋势的非线性特征。Over the past few decades,the sea surface temperature(SST)has exhibited increasingly noticeable characteristics of nonlinear and unstable changes in the context of global climate change,particularly in specific local sea areas.This study aims to comprehensively understand the long-term evolution of SST by proposing a novel polynomial-based trend classification model.This model was used for detecting the long-term trends in SST using satellite-based AVHRR SST data from 1982 to 2021,with a special emphasis on the Bohai and Yellow Seas(BYS).It was revealed that the SST of the BYS was increasing by an average of 0.020℃/a in the 1982–2021 period,in which time it increased by 0.772℃overall.The magnitude of warming exhibited distinct spatial heterogeneity and seasonal asymmetry.On the spatial scale,the SST trend was higher in the western part than in the eastern part of the BYS.On the seasonal scale,the SST trend was higher during spring and winter than during summer and autumn.During the period of the global warming hiatus around 2012,a substantial nonlinear trend(quadratic or cubic)dominated 58.87%of the area,a concealed nonlinear trend occupied 20.62%of the area,and no considerable trend was detected in 4.21%of the BYS.This study suggests that more attention should be paid to the spatial heterogeneity,seasonal asymmetry,and nonlinear feature of these trends in long-term SST trend evaluation.

关 键 词：全球变暖 海面温度 黄海和渤海 季节非对称性 趋势非线性 

分 类 号：P731.11[天文地球—海洋科学]