基于面板向量自回归模型分析单采血浆站设置对无偿献血采集量的冲击  

Analysis of the impact of setting up plasmapheresis station on the collection volume of voluntary blood donation based on panel vector autoregressive model

作　　者：李婉 肖光林 李长清[1] 陈勇军[1] 王永 黄敬 马晓军 杨寿强 陈飞 王娅[1] LI Wan;XIAO Guanglin;LI Changqing;CHEN Yongjun;WANG Yong;HUANG Jing;MA Xiaojun;YANG Shouqiang;CHEN Fei;WANG Ya(Institute of Blood Transfusion,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical College,Chengdu 610052,China;Guangyuan Blood Center;Sichuan Yuanda Shuyang Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd;Jiange Plasmapheresis Station,Sichuan Yuanda Shuyang Pharmaceutical Company Limited;Cangxi Plasmapheresis Station,Sichuan Yuanda Shuyang Pharmaceutical Company Limited.)

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院输血研究所,四川成都610052 [2]广元市中心血站 [3]四川远大蜀阳药业有限责任公司 [4]剑阁蜀阳单采血浆有限公司 [5]苍溪蜀阳单采血浆有限公司

出　　处：《中国输血杂志》2023年第7期618-622,共5页Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion

基　　金：中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程重大协同创新项目-血液安全保障及新产品新技术研究(2021-I2M-1-060)。

摘　　要：目的运用面板向量自回归模型分析浆站建设与无偿献血采集量的动态关系,为我国血站、浆站管理政策提供科学参考。方法收集四川省广元市7个行政区域2011—2021年血站的无偿献血采集量以及区域内2家单采血浆站自执业起两年内的采浆数据,构建面板向量自回归模型,采用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,分析模拟浆站设置对无偿献血采集量的冲击和时滞效应,然后利用协方差分析,探究排除初始值差异影响后浆站设立是否对无偿献血采集量造成了影响。结果脉冲响应结果显示,浆站设置后对无偿献血采集量在第1阶有负向冲击效应,其影响在第2阶后即开始上升,在第3阶达到最高值,随后开始下降,在第7阶之后趋于平稳,但在10阶范围内,无偿献血采集量响应强度的置信区间始终包含0,说明区域内采血量对浆站设立的响应没有统计学意义。方差分解结果显示,无偿献血采集量对自身影响的贡献度达94.3%。在浆站因素影响的贡献度方面,献浆人次对无偿献血采集量的影响相对更大(2.2%)。通过协方差分析可知,去除初始值混杂因素后,是否设立浆站对两组地区献血量影响并不显著(P>0.05)。结论新浆站的设立对该地区血站采血量短期内会造成一定的冲击,但从长期来看,可能不会直接影响区域内的无偿献血采集。Objective To analyze the dynamic relationship between the setting up of plasmapheresis station and the volume of voluntary blood donation collected using panel vector autoregressive model,so as to provide scientific reference for the management policies of blood stations and plasmapheresis stations in China.Methods The data collected from blood stations in seven administrative regions of Guangyuan,Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2021,as well as plasma collection data from two plasmapheresis stations in the region within two years since their operation,were collected.A panel vector autoregressive model was constructed.Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis were used to analyze the impact and time lag effects of simulated plasmapheresis station settings on the collection volume of voluntary blood donation.Covariance analysis was used to explore whether the establishment of plasmapheresis station had an impact on the volume of voluntary blood donation collected after excluding the impact of initial value differences.Results The pulse response results showed that after the plasmapheresis station was set up,there was a negative impact effect on the voluntary blood donation collection volume at the first stage,and its impact began to rise after the second stage,reached the highest value in the third stage,and then began to decline.After the seventh stage,it tended to be stable.However,within the 10 stage range,the confidence interval for the response strength of voluntary blood donation collection volume always included 0,indicating that the response of blood collection volume to the plasmapheresis station setting in the region was not statistically significant.The results of variance decomposition showed that the contribution of collection volume of voluntary blood donation to their own impact reached 94.3%.In terms of the contribution of plasmapheresis station factors,the number of plasma donors has a relatively greater impact on the volume of voluntary blood donation collected(2.2%).Covariance a

关 键 词：面板向量自回归模型 单采血浆站 无偿献血 广元 

分 类 号：R331.1[医药卫生—人体生理学] R457[医药卫生—基础医学]