新安江模型与水箱模型在马家沟水库洪水预报的适用性研究  

Study on Applicability of Xin anjiang Model and Tank Model in Flood Forecasting in Majiagou Reservoir

作　　者：马靖航 咸永财 何学平 刘明 韩牧原 杜佰林 阮炳南 许鎏佳 吴磊[2,3] MA Jinghang;XIAN Yongcai;HE Xueping;LIU Ming;HAN Muyuan;DU Bailin;RUAN Bingnan;XU Liujia;WU Lei(State Energy Shaanxi Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Xi an 710000,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water and Soil Engineering in Arid Areas,Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]国能陕西水电有限公司,陕西西安710000 [2]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点试验室,陕西杨凌712100 [3]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第7期1-7,63,共8页Pearl River

基　　金：基于人工智能技术的水电站库区气象水文保障系统研究(TS-2208714)。

摘　　要：洪水预报是重要的非工程防洪措施之一,是防洪指挥决策的主要依据。为避免单一模型预报结果的不确定性,以城固县马家沟水库为对象,应用新安江模型和水箱模型分别模拟了2019—2021年流域日径流和次洪水过程,并结合遗传算法率定优化的模型参数比较了模拟结果与精度。日模方面,水箱模型的模拟效果更优,洪量相对误差小于16%,洪峰相对误差小于4%,峰现时差小于1 h,Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数大于0.58,均达到了《水文情报预报规范》的评定精度要求,且对于水库大洪水的模拟效果也较为理想。次模方面,2个模型的峰现时差表现相当,新安江模型的模拟效果更平滑,水箱模型的洪量和洪峰模拟更贴近实测流量过程。整体来看,水箱模型比新安江模型更适合马家沟水库的洪水预报。Flood forecasting is one of the important non-engineering flood control measures and is the main basis for flood control command and decision-making.In order to avoid the uncertainty of the prediction results of a single model,the Majiagou Reservoir in Chenggu County was taken as the object to simulate the daily runoff and flood process from 2019 to 2021 by using the Xin anjiang model and tank model respectively,and the simulation results and accuracy of the two models were compared by using the model parameters calibrated and optimized by the genetic algorithm.In the daily runoff simulation,the simulation effect of the tank model is better than that of the Xin anjiang model,with a relative error of flood volume of less than 16%,a relative error of flood peak of less than 4%,a difference of peak time of less than 1 h,and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of greater than 0.58,all of which meet the evaluation accuracy requirements of the Standard for Hydrological Information and Hydrological Forecasting,and the simulation effect of deluge in the reservoir is ideal.In the flood process simulation,the difference of peak time between the two models is similar;the simulation effect of the Xin anjiang model is smoother,and the flood volume and flood peak simulated by the tank model are closer to the measured flow process.On the whole,the tank model is more suitable for flood forecasting in Majiagou Reservoir than the Xin anjiang model.

关 键 词：洪水预报 新安江模型 水箱模型 实时校正 马家沟水库 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]