基于物元可拓模型的永定河水与经济社会耦合协同发展综合评价  

Comprehensive Evaluation of Coordinated Water and Socio-economic Development Based on the Material-element Extension Model

作　　者：肖冰琦 于森 王振昌[2] 邸苏闯 李凤霞[3] XIAO Bingqi;YU Sen;WANG Zhenchang;DI Suchuang;LI Fengxia(Beijing Water Science&Technology Institute,Beijing 100048,China;College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Beiyun River Management,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048 [2]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏南京210098 [3]北京市北运河管理处,北京100048

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第7期98-108,117,共12页Pearl River

基　　金：北京自然科学基金(8212028);江苏省研究生实践创新项目(SJCX23_0196)

摘　　要：以永定河在北京段中流经的5个区为例,应用“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型,选择了涉及水资源、经济、社会和环境的16个典型评价指标,构建了永定河流经五区的水与经济社会耦合协同发展综合评价指标体系,基于物元可拓模型建立了水与经济社会耦合协同发展综合评价模型,评估了2012—2021年用水与经济社会高质量协同发展的耦合程度及发展态势。结果表明:①石景山区与丰台区的协同发展水平处于高度耦合状态,已达到I级水平,门头沟区、大兴区和房山区水资源可持续利用与经济社会协调发展状态达到Ⅱ级,处于较高水平耦合;②第一产业对大兴区、房山区以及第三产业对丰台区的水与经济社会耦合程度影响显著,第二产业、第三产业对门头沟区的水与经济社会耦合程度受其影响不显著,对石景山区的水与经济社会耦合程度受其影响显著。其结论为北京市水资源高效开发利用和用水精细化管理提供决策参考。Taking the Yongding River as an example,this paper applies the“pressure-state-response”(PSR)model to select 16 typical evaluation indicators involving water resources,economy,society,and environment.Then,a comprehensive evaluation index system for coordinated water and socio-economic development in the five districts where the Yongding River flows through is built.Based on the matter-element extension method,a comprehensive evaluation model for the coupled water and socioeconomic development is proposed to evaluate the coupling degree and development trend of high-quality and coordinated water and socio-economic development in the Yongding River from 2012 to 2021.The results are as follows.①The coordinated development between Shijingshan District and Fengtai District is at a high coupling level of level I.The sustainable utilization of water resources and coordinated socio-economic development in Mentougou District,Daxing District,and Fangshan District reach level II at a higher coupling level.②The primary industry exerts a significant influence on the water and socio-economic coupling of the Daxing District and Fangshan District,and the tertiary industry has a prominent effect on the coupling of the Fengtai District.The second and tertiary industries exert significant effects on the water and socio-economic coupling of the Mentougou District but do not notably influence the water and socio-economic coupling of the Shijingshan District.The conclusions provide references for decision-making for the efficient development and utilization of water resources and refined management of water use in Beijing.

关 键 词：水与经济社会 耦合协同发展 PSR模型 物元可拓模型 永定河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]