应用受访者驱动抽样估计青岛市男男性行为者人群规模  

Using respondent-driven sampling to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men in Qingdao

作　　者：朱丽敏 黄贵花 宋鑫[2] 傅泳 葛琳[1] 李培龙[1] 李东民[1] ZHU Limin;HUANG Guihua;SONG Xin;FU Yong;GE Lin;LI Peilong;LI Dongmin(Department of Epidemiology,National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention,Qingdao Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Qingdao 266033,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心流行病学室,北京102206 [2]青岛市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制所,青岛266033

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第6期678-683,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2017ZX10201101-002-005)。

摘　　要：目的探索受访者驱动抽样(respondent-driven sampling,RDS)在男男性行为者(men who have sex with men,MSM)人群规模估计中的应用经验并估计青岛市MSM人群规模,为青岛市艾滋病疫情估计和资源分配提供参考。方法采用RDS于2022年8-10月招募青岛市MSM参与调查,收集一般人口学特征及社交网络规模信息。采用RDS Analyst 0.72软件评估RDS招募效果,通过定性访谈了解青岛市MSM人群参与调查的意愿及其对激励措施的态度,利用连续抽样人群规模估计法估计青岛市MSM人群规模。结果共招募671人参与研究,其中种子10名,种子所在招募链的人数均>20人,招募轮次为4~14轮不等。研究对象的年龄组、婚姻状况、受教育程度及户籍地构成在第5~10轮达到均衡,人口学特征的同质性系数均接近1。10名访谈对象均表示无论是否有激励措施都愿意参与此类调查。连续抽样人群规模估计法基于研究对象自我报告的社交网络规模及基于可见度估计的青岛市MSM人数为分别为80405~93410人和69284~80236人,占青岛市成年男性人口的比例分别为1.88%~2.19%和1.62%~1.88%。结论RDS在MSM人群的招募效果较好,应用基于RDS的连续抽样人群规模估计法估计的青岛市MSM占当地成年男性人口的比例为1.62%~2.19%。Objective To explore the experience of respondent-driven sampling(RDS)in the estimation of population size of men who have sex with men(MSM)and to estimate population size of MSM in Qingdao,providing a reference for HIV/AIDS epidemic estimation and resource allocation in Qingdao.Methods An RDS-based survey was conducted from August to October,2022,gathering information about the general demographics and social network size of MSM in Qingdao.RDS Analyst 0.72 software was used to evaluate the recruitment effectiveness of RDS.The willingness of MSM in Qingdao to participate in the survey and their attitude towards incentive measures were understood through qualitative interviews.The MSM size in Qingdao was estimated by successive sampling-population size estimation.Results A total of 671 participants were included in this study,including 10 seeds,with over 20 people in the recruitment chains where the seeds were located.The recruitment waves ranged from 4 to 14.The age group,marital status,education attainment and census register of the participants reached equilibrium between the 5th and 10th waves,with the homogeneity coefficients for demographic characteristics all approaching 1.All of 10 interviewees said they would participate in such surveys regardless of incentives.Based on the self-reported social network size of the study subjects and the visibility,the estimated MSM population in Qingdao was 80405-93410 and 69284-80236,accounting for 1.88%-2.19%and 1.62%-1.88%of adult males in Qingdao,respectively.Conclusions RDS recruitment is effective for MSM,and the RDS-based successive sampling-population size estimation indicates that MSM comprises 1.62%to 2.19%of the local adult male population in Qingdao.

关 键 词：受访者驱动抽样 连续抽样人群规模估计法 男男性行为者 人群规模 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]