“2+26”城市煤炭消费重心演化及其与经济增长脱钩效应分析  

Analysis on the Evolution of Coal Consumption Gravity and Its Decoupling Effect with Economic Growth in“2+26”Cities

作　　者：曹正旭 张樨樨 张仁杰 丁鼎 CAO Zhengxu;ZHANG Xixi;ZHANG Renjie;DING Ding(Management College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao Shandong 266100,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao Shandong 266580,China;China Academy of Aerospace Systems Science and Engineering,Beijing 100037,China;School of Economics and Management,Shangqiu Normal University,Shangqiu Henan 476000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580 [3]中国航天系统科学与工程研究院,北京100037 [4]商丘师范学院经济管理学院,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第8期86-94,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“中国新形态就业管理创新理论研究”(21FGLB021);国家社会科学基金项目“‘2+26’城市煤炭消费减量替代差异化路径与政策协同机制研究”(19BJY085);河南省人文社会科学研究一般项目“环境规制对黄河流域中原城市群经济高质量发展的影响研究”(2023-ZZJH-016)。

摘　　要：煤炭消费引致的大气环境污染已成为当前亟待解决的现实问题,尤其是雾霾重灾区——京津冀地区煤炭消费治理更是迫在眉睫。选取“2+26”城市2008—2018年相关数据,运用重心模型探究煤炭消费强度重心移动轨迹,并利用脱钩模型分析煤炭消费与经济增长的脱钩关系,最后借助改进的STIRPAT计量模型对影响脱钩的相关因素进行分析。结果显示:煤炭消费强度重心移动轨迹具有很强的不稳定性,偏移方向呈现“西南—东北”倾向,整体偏于几何中心的西南方向;2008—2018年“2+26”城市区域煤炭消费与经济增长实现了由弱脱钩向强脱钩过渡的理想状态;各城市的脱钩努力程度不同,强脱钩城市由2008年的7个增加到2018年的22个;产业结构转型是实现煤炭消费与经济增长脱钩的主要因素,技术进步虽然促进了二者脱钩,但贡献度较小。Air pollution caused by coal consumption has become a realistic problem that needs to be solved urgently at present.Especially in the heavily smog-stricken areas,coal consumption control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is even more urgent.In this paper,we select relevant data of“2+26”cities from 2008 to 2018 to explore the movement track of the center of gravity of coal consumption intensity,and use decoupling model to analyze the decoupling relationship between coal consumption and economic growth.Finally,factors influencing decoupling are analyzed with STIRPAT model.The results show that:The center of gravity movement track of coal consumption intensity has a strong instability,and the deviation direction shows a tendency of“southwest-northeast”.The coal consumption of“2+26”urban regions and economic growth realized the ideal transition from weak decoupling to strong decoupling from 2008 to 2018.Different cities have different degrees of decoupling efforts,and the number of strongly decoupling cities has increased from 7 in 2008 to 22 in 2018.The industrial structure transformation is the main factor to realize the decoupling of economic growth and coal consumption.Although technological progress promotes the decoupling of the coal consumption and economy growth,it gives limited contribution.

关 键 词：煤炭消费 经济增长 重心模型 脱钩效应 STIRPAT模型 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] F124