Linking the past and present to predict the distribution of Asian crested ibis(Nipponia nippon)under global changes  

作　　者：Fangyuan YU Yiwen SUN Tiejun WANG Andrew KSKIDMORE Changqing DING Xinping YE 

机构地区：[1]School of Geographical Sciences and Remote Sensing,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou,China [2]Department of Natural Resources,Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation,University of Twente,Enschede,The Netherlands [3]Department of Environmental Science,New South Wales,Macquarie University,Macquarie,Australia [4]College of Nature Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing,China [5]College of Life Sciences,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an,China

出　　处：《Integrative Zoology》2022年第6期1095-1105,共11页整合动物学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41901060,No.31672310);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC0503200).

摘　　要：Understanding how species’ecological niches adapt to environmental changes through time is critical for predicting the effect of future global change on endangered species.Yet few studies have incorporated knowledge of past niche shifting into the assessment of species’future fate in a changing world.In this study,we integrated the ecological niche dynamics into the species distribution modeling of the Asian crested ibis(Nipponia nippon)in East Asia.Specifically,we compared historical and present ecological niches of crested ibis in four-dimensional environmental space based on species occurrence and environmental data.We then employed a multi-temporal ecological niche model to estimate the potential geographical distribution of crested ibis under future climate and land-use changes.Our results show that crested ibis retained similar though not identical ecological niches over time.Compared to the historical baseline range,the current suitable habitat for crested ibis has been reduced by 39.6%.The effects of human activity outweigh those of climate change regarding the distribution of crested ibis.We conclude that the ecological niche of crested ibis was tended to be conservative,and future potentially suitable habitat may encounter northeastward and northwestward shift,and possibly expand by 18.7%referred to the historical range.Thefindings of our study are of clear importance for the conservation and successful reintroduction of crested ibis in East Asia.

关 键 词：BIOGEOGRAPHY climate change ecological niche land-use change niche conservatism 

分 类 号：Q95[生物学—动物学]