基于优化MaxEnt模型的板齿鼠Bandicota indica在中国适生区预测与分析  

Prediction and analysis of potential suitable habitats of Bandicota indica in China based on optimized MaxEnt model

作　　者：林思亮 姚丹丹[1] 姜洪雪 冯志勇[1] LIN Siliang;YAO Dandan;JIANG Hongxue;FENG Zhiyong(Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High Technology for Plant Protection,Plant Protection Research Institute,Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省农业科学院植物保护研究所,广东省植物保护新技术重点实验室,广州510640

出　　处：《植物保护》2023年第4期92-100,共9页Plant Protection

基　　金：广东省现代农业产业共性关键技术研发创新团队建设项目(2021KJ113,2022KJ113);广东省农业科学院青年导师项目(R2021QD-016)。

摘　　要：板齿鼠Bandicota indica对农作物危害极大,传播多种人兽共患疾病且扩散能力强。及时掌握板齿鼠种群动态及其分布区动态,对其监测、预警及防控具有参考意义。本文对板齿鼠分布数据的筛选方法和MaxEnt模型参数的设置进行优化,使用R软件的ENMeval程序包对48个参数组合进行测试,筛选出构建MaxEnt模型的最优参数。基于板齿鼠分布数据和参数优化的MaxEnt模型预测板齿鼠在中国适生区的分布,结果表明,板齿鼠在中国的适生区分布于广东、广西、台湾地区、福建、云南、四川、贵州、江西、海南、西藏、浙江等地,总面积为68.6万km^(2),占研究区面积的7.23%左右。最暖季降水量、等温性和年均温是影响板齿鼠分布的主导环境因子。本研究不仅模拟了板齿鼠在我国的潜在地理分布,更为该鼠的分布与环境变量之间关系的研究提供了理论参考。Bandicota indica causes serious damage to crops,transmits a variety of zoonoses and has a high dispersal capability,and thus understanding its population dynamics and distribution dynamics is significant for the monitoring,early warning and prevention of this rodent.The selection method of distribution data of B.indica and the parameter setting of MaxEnt software were optimized in this study.The optimal parameters were selected for MaxEnt model from 48 different parameter combinations by using the R program package ENMeval.The MaxEnt model based on the distribution data and optimal parameters was used to predict the potential distribution of B.indica in China.The prediction results showed that the suitable habitats of B.indica in China were distributed in Guangdong,Guangxi,Taiwan,Fujian,Yunnan,Sichuan,Guizhou,Jiangxi,Hainan,Tibet,Zhejiang.The total area of suitable habitats was 686000 km^(2),accounting for about 7.23%of the total land area of China.Precipitation of the warmest quarter,isothermality and annual mean temperature were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of B.indica.The results of this study not only predicted the suitable distribution areas of B.indica in China,but also provide theoretical references for the study of the relationship between the distribution of B.indica and environmental variables.

关 键 词：板齿鼠 MaxEnt模型 适生区 模型参数优化 

分 类 号：S443.5[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]