自由迁移、工资变化与产出提升  

Free Migration,Wage Changes,and Output Increase

作　　者：年猛[1,2] 王垚[2,3] Nian Meng;Wang Yao

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学 [3]中国社会科学院中国边疆研究所

出　　处：《统计研究》2023年第5期78-89,共12页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“户籍制度改革与中国城市规模体系优化研究”(17CJL023);国家社会科学基金重大项目“统筹推进县域城乡融合发展的理论框架与实践路径研究”(22&ZD112)。

摘　　要：本文估计了迁移成本降低对我国宏观总产出和劳动者个体收入的影响,并考虑了劳动者选择效应及人力资本空间异质性。估计结果显示:当迁移成本降至0时,我国宏观总产出将提升18.41%;基于市场竞争机制作用的影响,各区域劳动者工资变化幅度在‒19.4%到16.5%之间,83.7%区域范围的劳动者工资受益于迁移成本降低,16.3%区域范围的劳动者工资会受损,总体来看收入越低的区域劳动者受益越多,部分高收入区域劳动者工资可能会受损。此外,如果忽视选择效应会低估迁移成本降低对总产出的影响。尽管自由迁移不会对每个区域劳动者收入产生正的收益,但从宏观层面来看,劳动力自由迁移有助于提升整体经济的产出并缩小区域之间的收入差距。加大力度降低迁移成本、鼓励劳动力自由迁移,有利于稳定当前宏观经济形势,延续我国经济增长态势。This paper estimates the impact of migration cost reduction on macro-output and individual income of labor in China,accounting for the selection effect of labor and spatial heterogeneity of human capital.The estimation results show that:when the migration cost is 0,the total labor output will increase by 18.41%;based on the influence of market competition mechanism,the range of labor wage change in each region is‒19.4%to 16.5%;83.7%of the regional workers benefit from the reduction of migration cost,while 16.3%of the regional workers will suffer losses.Generally speaking,workers in the lower income regions will benefit more,but workers in some high-income regions may suffer.In addition,this study also shows that ignoring the selection effect will underestimate the impact of the reduction of migration cost on the total output.Although free migration will not bring positive benefits to the income of workers in each region,from the macro level,free migration of labor force helps to improve the overall economic output and narrow the income gap between regions.We should strengthen efforts to reduce the cost of migration and encourage the free migration of labor force,which may become a new power source for the continuation of China's economic growth trend.

关 键 词：迁移成本 选择效应 产出提升 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]