外需冲击、经济再平衡与全国统一大市场构建——基于动态量化空间均衡的研究  

External Demand Shock,Economic Rebalance and A Unified National Market:A Study Based on Dynamic Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium

作　　者：陈斌开[1] 赵扶扬 CHEN Binkai;ZHAO Fuyang(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,100081

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第6期30-48,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA034);国家自然科学青年基金项目(72003211)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：建设全国统一大市场是构建新发展格局、推动经济高质量发展的基础支撑和内在要求。本文研究外需冲击和国内市场分割对中国经济增长和经济结构的影响,进而探讨建设全国统一大市场对中国经济高质量发展的潜在作用。基于动态量化空间一般均衡模型,本文在统一的理论框架下刻画了外需冲击、市场分割、经济增长和经济结构的关系,解释了金融危机前后中国经济增长率先升后降,以及产业结构、收入分配结构、消费储蓄结构“从失衡走向平衡”等重大宏观经济现象。研究发现,国内市场分割放大了外需萎缩对经济增长和经济结构的负面影响,全国统一大市场可以让经济增长率下降幅度减少2/3。本文进一步测算了产品市场和劳动力市场分割程度下降对经济增长和社会福利等方面的潜在影响,发现产品市场一体化对经济增长的推动作用更为明显,劳动力市场一体化则更有利于提升社会福利,二者均能促进经济高质量再平衡。本文的政策含义在于,构建全国统一大市场对促进经济增长和经济再平衡有巨大潜力,需要以改革释放制度红利,使各地区从“分割”走向“分工”,促进经济实现高质量发展。A unified national market is the fundamental requirement for creating a new pattern of development and promoting high-quality economic development.However,the long-standing market segmentation has reduced the efficiency of the domestic market,making the Chinese economy overly dependent on external demand.Before the 2008 financial crisis,the external demand was strong,and the negative impact of domestic market segmentation was not fully highlighted.After the crisis,the external demand weakend.But domestic market segmentation made it difficult to effectively transfer external demand to the domestic market,and the mismatch of supply and demand was fully highlighted,resulting in overcapacity and a decline in economic growth.Meanwhile,China's economic structure showed a new trend of change,including a decline in the proportion of the secondary industry,an increase in the labor income share,a decline in the national savings rate,and an increase in residents'consumption rate.The underlying economic implications of these“rebalancing”phenomena require thorough analyses.This paper argues that domestic market segmentation and external demand weakness are crucial to China's economic growth and structural changes before and after the financial crisis.Shrinking external demand is the direct cause of the decline in economic growth and changes in economic structure.The shrinking external demand directly reduced the proportion of the tradable goods sector.Since the tradable goods sector is capital intensive,the change in industrial structure led to an increase in the labor income share.At the same time,the decline in economic growth and the return on investment suppressed the national savings rate and promoted the consumption rate.However,the“rebalancing”of China's economy driven by the shrinking external demand is a passive rebalancing at the expense of the downward shift of China's economic growth and the decline in residents'welfare.Domestic demand should have been a substitute for external demand.When external demand

关 键 词：全国统一大市场 外需萎缩 经济再平衡 动态量化空间均衡 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]