生产链长度与PPI-CPI分化——基于全球投入产出价格模型的分析  

Length of Production Chain and PPI-CPI Divergence:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Global Input-output Price Model

作　　者：倪红福 闫冰倩[3] 吴立元 NI Hong-fu;YAN Bing-qian;WU Li-yuan(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [3]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [4]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2023年第6期5-23,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国贸易投资开放发展:基本规律、宏观效应与‘双循环’新发展格局构建”(批准号72141309);国家自然科学基金面上项目“突发性公共卫生事件的全球价值链重构效应:基于生产网络结构一般均衡模型方法”(批准号72073142);国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国产业迈向价值链中高端:理论内涵、测度和路径分析”(批准号71873142)。

摘　　要：生产率、国际能源价格等冲击沿着产业链传导到PPI和CPI。中国经济深入参与全球价值链,中国产业的生产链长度日益变长。那么,生产链长度变化会如何影响CPI和PPI以及两者的联动关系?本文通过构建全球投入产出价格模型,从理论上探讨生产链长度对PPI和CPI分化的影响大小,进一步利用实际CPI和PPI数据,实证检验了生产链长度对CPI和PPI联动性的影响程度。结果表明,国际大宗商品价格冲击对中国PPI的影响大于其对CPI的影响。不论是PPI还是CPI,根据单国投入产出模型计算得到的对中国价格指数的影响均比根据全球投入产出模型计算得到的结果偏高,但运用全球投入产出模型计算的CPI与PPI变化幅度之差,要大于运用单国投入产出模型计算的结果,这在一定程度上支持了生产链变长尤其是国际生产链变长导致PPI和CPI分化的观点。利用跨国面板数据所做实证的结果也表明,生产链长度变长减弱了世界各国PPI—CPI的联动性,即生产链变长加剧了PPI—CPI的分化。这表明,稳定物价不宜以CPI为单一目标,应该兼顾PPI与CPI的稳定,同时积极调整价格指数体系,并编制产业链价格指数。Shocks such as productivity and international energy prices can be transmitted to PPI and CPI through the production chain.In recent years,the PPI and CPI in China have shown different trend,and even reversed trend in some years.Before 2008,the trend of CPI was consistent with that of PPI in China,indicating relatively smooth transmission between PPI and CPI.However,after 2008,there is an obvious divergence between these two indexes and the correlation between PPI and CPI in China decreases.This trend is consistent with that of production chain length.Then how the change in the length of the production chain will affect PPI and CPI and the linkage between them?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper simulates the potential impact of international price fluctuations on China's PPI and CPI,and compares the different impact of the same international price fluctuations on China's PPI and CPI under different production chains,as well as the degree of deviation between PPI and CPI,in order to theoretically explore the influence of production chain length on PPI-CPI divergence in the global value chain.Furthermore,using the actual PPI and CPI data in China,this paper empirically tests the influence of production chain length on PPI-CPI divergence.The results are as follows.The impact of international price shocks on China's PPI is greater than that on CPI.The impacts of energy price change in other countries on China's PPI and total final demand CPI are heterogeneous.Whether it is PPI index or CPI index,the result obtained from single-country input-output model is overestimated,but the difference between PPI and CPI calculated by global input-output model is larger than that calculated by single-country input-output model.This result supports that longer production chain length,especially longer international production chain length,leads to the divergence between PPI and CPI.The empirical results of transnational panel data also show that longer production chain length weakens the linkage of PPI-CP

关 键 词：全球价值链 生产链长度 消费者价格指数 生产者价格指数 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]