基于最大熵模型的黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Haemphysalis concinna in Heilongjiang Province based on the maximum entropy model

作　　者：张雅明[1] 王玥 袁爽[3] 唐磊[3] 张文佳[1] 陈曲 陈树林 于洋[1] 贾月辉 ZHANG Yaming;WANG Yue;YUAN Shuang;TANG Lei;ZHANG Wenjia;CHEN Qu;CHEN Shulin;YU Yang;JIA Yuehui(Institute of Vector and Parasitic Diseases,Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150086,Chi-na;Department of Infectious Disease Control and Emergency,Songbei District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin Center,Heilongjiang Province,China;Institute of Prevention and Control of Endemic Diseases and Vector Organisms,Heilongji-ang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Qiqihar Medical University,Qiqihar,Heilongjiang 161000,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省哈尔滨市疾病预防控制中心病媒与寄生虫病预防控制所,黑龙江哈尔滨150086 [2]黑龙江省哈尔滨市松北区疾病预防控制中心传染病控制与应急科 [3]黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心地方病与病媒生物预防控制所 [4]齐齐哈尔医学院公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,黑龙江齐齐哈尔161000

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2023年第3期263-270,共8页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

基　　金：黑龙江省属高等学校基本科研业务费项目(2020⁃KYYWF⁃0054)。

摘　　要：目的预测不同气候时期黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区。方法通过查阅文献和黑龙江省哈尔滨市疾病预防控制中心蜱类现场监测数据,获得1980—2022年黑龙江省蜱类分布点地理位置信息,采用ArcGIS 10.2软件去除其中具有空间相关性的分布点。从WorldClim网站下载1970—2000年历史气候情景环境数据及2021—2040年和2041—2060年共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic pathways,SSP)126情景气候模型;从中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心下载海拔高度(分辨率1 km,2010年)、中国人口空间分布公里网格数据集(分辨率1 km,2010年)和年度植被指数(分辨率1 km,2010年)等数据。采用MaxEnt 3.4.1和R 4.1.0软件预估环境因子贡献率、相关性分析并进行变量筛选;采用最大熵模型(maximum entropy model,MaxEnt)预测不同气候时期黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区面积及重心变化。采用受试者工作曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)对模型预测结果精度进行评价。结果共收集79个嗜群血蜱分布点及24个环境因子数据,从中筛选出70个嗜群血蜱分布点及9个对黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区分布有影响的环境因子。其中降水量变异系数、年降水量、最干季度平均温度对模型贡献率居前3位,累计贡献率60.7%。历史气候时期,黑龙江省嗜群血蜱总适生区面积为29.05×104 km^(2),适生区重心位于(47.31°N,129.16°E)。在SSP126情景下至2041—2060年,黑龙江省嗜群血蜱总适生区面积总体缩减0.97×104 km^(2),适生区重心移至(47.70°N,129.28°E)。结论黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区分布与温度、湿度变化密切相关。随着气候变化,黑龙江省嗜群血蜱潜在适生区总面积可能呈下降趋势,高、中、低度潜在适生区域可能发生地域转移。Objective To predict the potential suitable habitat of Haemaphysalis concinna in Heilongjiang Province under dif⁃ferent climatic scenarios.Methods The geographic locations of ticks in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2022 were cap⁃tured from literature review and field ticks monitoring data from Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Heilongji⁃ang Province,and the tick distribution sites with spatial correlations were removed using the software ArcGIS 10.2.The environ⁃ment data under historical climatic scenarios from 1970 to 2000 and the climatic shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP)126 sce⁃nario model from 2021 to 2040 and from 2041 to 2060 were downloaded from the WorldClim website,and the elevation(1 km,2010),population(1 km grid population dataset of China,2010)and annual vegetation index(1 km,2010)data were downloaded from the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Center,Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources,Chi⁃nese Academy of Sciences.The contribution of environmental factors to H.concinna distribution was evaluated and environmental variables were screened using the software MaxEnt 3.4.1 and R package 4.1.0,and the areas of suitable habitats of H.concin⁃na and changes in center of gravity were analyzed using the maximum entropy model in Heilongjiang Province under different cli⁃matic scenarios.In addition,the accuracy of the maximum entropy model for prediction of H.concinna distribution was assessed using the area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results A total of 79 H.concinna distribution sites and 24 environmental variables were collected,and 70 H.concinna distribution sites and 9 environmental factors that con⁃tributed to distribution of the potential suitable habitats of H.concinna in Heilongjiang Province were screened.The three most significant contributing factors included precipitation seasonality,annual precipitation,and mean temperature of the driest quar⁃ter,with cumulative contributions of 60.7%.The tota

关 键 词：嗜群血蜱 最大熵模型 环境因子 适生区 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：R384.4[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]