基于变参数Budyko方程的东南沿海小流域径流变化分析  

Analysis of Runoff Changes in Small Coastal Watershed in Southeast China Based on Budyko Equation with Variable Parameters

作　　者：周月娇 董增川[1] 陈光跃 徐超 储媚 朱圣男 ZHOU Yue-jiao;DONG Zeng-chuan;CHEN Guang-yue;XU Chao;CHU Mei;ZHU Sheng-nan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Wenzhou Hydrological Management Center,Wenzhou 325000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]温州市水文管理中心,浙江温州325000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第7期12-15,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：温州市水文高质量发展先行区建设项目(WZSW-GZLFZXXQ-202105)。

摘　　要：东南沿海地区受东亚季风变化与人类活动的影响,流域水文过程发生改变,区域水资源合理开发利用面临挑战。以飞云江为例,构建基于滑动平均处理的变参数Budyko方程,分析流域内径流变化情况,并结合CMIP5模式定性预测未来径流变化趋势。结果表明,时变Budyko模型对年径流的模拟效果远优于常参数模型。在消除周期影响后飞云江流域水文气象要素均呈上升趋势。气候对飞云江流域径流变化的贡献率达85.56%,并呈下降趋势;下垫面对径流变化的贡献率2000~2020年相较2000年以前提升了6%。同时气候对径流变化的影响强度变化剧烈;下垫面对径流减少的影响强度减弱。此外在RCP4.5情景下飞云江流域未来径流将呈减少趋势。研究成果可为区域水资源规划提供理论支撑。Affected by the changes of East Asian monsoon and human activities,the hydrological processes in the southeast coastal area have been changed,and the rational development and utilization of regional water resources are facing challenges.Taking Feiyunjiang as an example,the variable parameter Budyko equation based on the moving average treatment was constructed to analyze the runoff change in the basin,and the future runoff change trend was predicted qualitatively combined with the CMIP5 model.The results show that the time-varying Budyko model is much better than the constant parameter Budyko model in the simulation of annual runoff.The hydrometeorological elements in Feiyunjiang Basin showed an upward trend after eliminating the influence of cycle.The contribution rate of climate to runoff variation in the Feiyunjiang Basin reached 85.56%,and showed a downward trend.Compared with before 2000,the contribution rate of the underlying surface to runoff change increased by 6%from 2000 to 2020.At the same time,the influence intensity of climate on runoff change changed sharply.The influence of the underlying surface on runoff reduction was weakened.In addition,under the RCP4.5 scenario,the runoff in the Feiyunjiang Basin will show a decreasing trend in the future.The research results can provide theoretical support for regional water resources planning.

关 键 词：气候 下垫面 变参数Budyko 飞云江流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]