引水隧洞结构安全风险评价的动态Bayes网络模型  

Dynamic Bayesian network model for the safety risk evaluation of a diversion tunnel structure

作　　者：刘康 刘昭伟[1] 陈永灿[1,2] 马芳平 王皓冉 黄会宝 谢辉 LIU Kang;LIU Zhaowei;CHEN Yongcan;MA Fangping;WANG Haoran;HUANG Huibao;XIE Hui(State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;China National Energy Dadu River Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610041,China;Sichuan Energy Internet Research,Tsinghua University,Chengdu 610042,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [2]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,成都610500 [3]国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司,成都610041 [4]清华四川能源互联网研究院,成都610042

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第7期1041-1049,共9页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFB1310504);国家自然科学基金资助项目(U21A20157);四川省科技计划资助项目(2022YFSY0011,2022YFQ0080,2023YFS0410)。

摘　　要：在运行期内,引水隧洞结构安全的影响因素较多且会随时间发生变化,因此,需要对引水隧洞结构安全进行分析评价。该文建立了一个动态Bayes网络(dynamic Bayesian network,DBN)模型评估引水隧洞的结构安全。首先,通过文献调研和专家咨询,确定引水隧洞结构安全的影响因素;然后,基于模糊层次分析法进行专家咨询,确定条件概率表(conditional probability table,CPT);最后,利用智能机器人巡检结果获得先验概率,并根据隧洞寿命的指数分布假设确定指标的转移概率。将模型应用于中国大渡河流域某水电站引水隧洞的结构安全评价,前向推理结果表明:引水隧洞整体风险较低,约在40 a后风险值增加至0.800,需要采取修补措施。反向传播结果显示:在不同的安全期,引水隧洞需关注不同的安全指标。该模型的评价结果与工程判断一致,表明模型具有较好的准确性和实用性。[Objective]A diversion tunnel is an important part of a water conservancy project.Many factors influence the safety of a diversion tunnel structure,and the risk situation of these factors changes with time during the operating period.Analysis and evaluation of the safety of a diversion tunnel structure are important for ensuring its normal operation.However,the influence factors are complex,and the detection and evaluation of structural safety remain challenging.[Methods]In this paper,a dynamic Bayesian network model for the safety evaluation of a diversion tunnel structure was established.First,a three-level influencing index system of tunnel structure safety was determined through literature research and expert consultation,combined with the world's current tunnel safety standards.The index system included 7 aspects and 26 specific indices,such as crack length,crack width,and pH value.The risk situation of each index was divided into five levels(from A to E),with each level corresponding to a specific risk probability and risk value,aiming to quantify the risk of the diversion tunnel structure.Second,index weights were assigned through expert consultation,and the conditional probability was determined based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.Finally,the prior probability was obtained through the inspection results of intelligent robots,and the transfer probability was determined according to the exponential distribution hypothesis of tunnel life.The time slice interval was set as 1 year,and the safety situation and future development trend of the diversion tunnel structural risk were calculated.In addition,by setting the overall risk level of the tunnel structure,the most likely risk probability distribution of each index was obtained through backpropagation.[Results]The model was applied to the structural safety evaluation of the diversion tunnel of a hydropower station in China,and the assessment results showed that:(1)According to forward inference,the overall risk value of the diversion tunnel was 0.23

关 键 词：动态Bayes网络 层次分析法 风险评价 引水隧洞 

分 类 号：TP393.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]