灰色马尔科夫模型在过程性学习评价中的应用  

The Application of Grey Markov Model in Process Learning Evaluation

作　　者：马永梅[1] 陈佩树[1] 彭维才[1] 汪峰 朱睿 MA Yongmei;CHEN Peishu;PENG Weicai;WANG Feng;ZHU Rui(Department of Mathematics and Statistics,Chaohu University,Chaohu,238000,China;Graduate School,Nanjing University of information engineerin,Nanjing 210046,China)

机构地区：[1]巢湖学院数学与大数据学院,安徽巢湖238000 [2]南京信息工程大学研究生院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《牡丹江师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期19-23,共5页Journal of Mudanjiang Normal University：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金重点项目(KJ2016A505);高校优秀青年骨干人才国内访问研修项目(gxgnfx2018034);巢湖学院“概率论与数理统计教学团队”项目(ch20jxtd02);安徽省重点教学研究项目(2020jyxm1263)。

摘　　要：以过程性评价为灰数,建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型.通过实证研究建立灰色评价等级和灰色转移概率矩阵,预测学生后期学习状态,发现学生的学习状态转移明显,在未来三学期的学习状态几乎趋于平衡点.A Grey Markov prediction model was established with the process evaluation as the grey number.Through the empirical study to establish the gray evaluation level,using the gray transfer probability matrix to predict the learning status of students.It is found that the learning state of the students has a significant shift,and the learning state of the students in the next three semesters tends to the equilibrium point.

关 键 词：灰色马尔科夫模型 过程学习评价 灰色转移概率矩阵 状态转移 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]