数字经济发展的人口红利效应——来自中国的经验证据  

The Demographic Dividend Effect of Digital Economy Development:Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：周健[1] 邓晶晶 ZHOU Jian;DENG Jingjing(School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《人口与经济》2023年第4期1-21,共21页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“二元经济转型视角下中国新型城乡关系的构建研究”(21ZDA053)。

摘　　要：“人口红利”是解释中国等东亚国家经济增长奇迹的核心概念和关键要素,但一些国家的人口红利在创造经济奇迹之后已开始逐渐衰退。当前全球数字经济蓬勃发展,其能够减缓人口红利的衰退,形成数字经济发展的人口红利效应吗?在数字经济发展通过提高劳动参与率、劳动就业率、人力资本以及资本深化水平缓解人口红利衰退的理论基础上,基于2013—2020年省级面板数据,采用引入三变量交互项的双向固定效应模型、动态面板DIF-GMM和SYS-GMM模型进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,数字经济发展对人口红利的衰退具有显著的减缓作用。该减缓作用是通过提高劳动就业率、人力资本以及资本深化水平间接实现的,数字经济发展通过提高劳动参与率影响人口红利的传导路径不具显著性。第二,在利用工具变量法处理内生性问题后,结论依然具有稳健性。第三,异质性分析表明,以“胡焕庸线”为界的东南部地区劳动年龄人口比重下降对经济增长的影响较西北部地区明显,同时数字经济发展对人口红利衰退的减缓作用较西北部地区突出。以秦岭—淮河一线为界的南方地区劳动年龄人口比重的下降对经济增长的影响较北方地区明显,较为特别的是北方地区数字经济发展通过人力资本影响人口红利的系数较南方地区大一些。以国家统计局三大地带为划分标准的东中西部地区异质性显示,数字经济发展通过劳动就业率、资本深化缓解人口红利衰退的能力从强到弱依次为东部、中部、西部,而西部地区通过人力资本缓解人口红利衰退的边际能力却强于东部、中部地区。“Demographic dividend”is the core concept and key element to explain high economic growth of China and other East Asian countries,but the demographic dividend in some countries has gradually declined after creating the economic miracle.With the current booming development of the global digital economy,can it slow down the decline of the demographic dividend and form the demographic dividend effect of the development of digital economy?On the basis of the alleviating effect of digital economy on the decline of the demographic dividend via improving the labor participation rate,the labor employment rate,the human capital and the material capital accumulation,this paper employs the two-way fixed effects model,dynamic panel DIF-GMM and SYS-GMM models with three variable interaction terms,to make an empirical analysis based on China’s provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020.The main findings can be summarized as follows:Firstly,the development of digital economy has a significant alleviating effect on the decline of demographic dividend,where this alleviating effect is indirectly achieved by the improvement of labor employment rate,human capital and material capital accumulation.The development of digital economy does not have a significant impact on demographic dividend through the improvement of labor force participation rate.Secondly,after processing endogeneity via instrument variable,the regression results remain robust.Thirdly,the heterogeneity analysis across regions shows that the decline in the proportion of working-age population in the southeastern region divided by the“Hu Huanyong Line”has a more significant impact on economic growth than in the northwestern region,while the alleviating effect of digital economic development on the decline of the demographic dividend is more prominent in the northwestern region.The decline in the proportion of working-age population in the southern region divided by the“Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River Line”has a more significant impact on economic growth t

关 键 词：数字经济 人口红利 劳动力就业 人力资本 经济增长 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济]