户籍登记系统的净误差估计  

Estimation of Net Error in Household Registration System

作　　者：胡桂华[1] 吴笛 刘誉环 HU Guihua;WU Di;LIU Yuhuan(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《人口与经济》2023年第4期56-74,共19页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文一般项目“人口普查登记误差估计”(21FTJB002)。

摘　　要：户籍登记系统存在登记误差,为发挥其作用,应估计其净误差。我国尚未估计户籍登记系统的净误差,这一状况应该改变。双系统估计量是目前估计净误差的重要方法。本研究的目的是,用组合式三系统估计量替代双系统估计量来估计我国户籍登记系统的净误差,即目标总体的未知实际人口数与已知的户籍登记系统人口数之差,为相关部门或有关人员科学使用户籍资料提供依据。采用抽样理论和数理模型方法构造组合式三系统估计量,利用样本普查小区的三份人口名单演示其计算过程。研究发现:虽然户籍登记系统是获得人口统计数据的重要来源,但由于它内含错误登记或漏登人口的登记误差,因此它所提供的人口数偏离实际人口数,需要采取恰当的方法估计这种偏离程度;抽样登记的组合式三系统估计量适合于净误差估计;为使估计的户籍登记系统净误差符合统计口径的一致性要求,样本普查小区的普查人口名单、事后计数调查人口名单和户籍人口名单中的每一个人必须具有本地户籍,否则从名单中剔除;组合式三系统估计量须在同质人口层建立,否则内含异质性偏差,低估总体实际人口数;在分层二重抽样下,组合式三系统估计量各个元素的估计量采用双重扩张估计量构造,抽样方差采用分层刀切法近似计算;净误差估计既可以在普查年进行,也可以在非普查年进行。本研究的意义在于,组合式三系统估计量有望被国家统计局采纳,用于未来户籍登记系统的净误差率估计。此外,还可以用来估计人口普查、农业普查及经济普查的净误差率。There are registration errors in the registered residence system.In order to play its role,the net error should be estimated.The net error of the registered residence system has not been estimated in China,which requires to be changed.Dual system estimator is an important method to estimate net error at present.The purpose of this study is to estimate the net error of household registration system by using the combined three-system estimator instead of the dualsystem estimator.It is the difference between the unknown actual population of the target population and the known population of the registered residence registration system,which provides the basis for the scientific use of registered residence registration data by relevant departments or personnel.The sampling theory and mathematical model method are used to construct a combined three-system estimator,and the calculation process is demonstrated by using three population lists of sample census districts.The research finds that:1)Although the registered residence system is an important source of demographic data,due to the error of misregistration or missing population registration,the population provided by registered residence registration system is different from actual population,where appropriate methods should be adopted to estimate the extent of such deviation.2)The combined three-system estimator of sampling registration is appropriate for net error estimation.3)In order to make the estimated net error of the registered residence system meet the consistency requirements of the statistical caliber,each person in the census population list the post-enumeration survey population list and the registered residence population list of the sample census communities must have local registeration,otherwise they must be removed from these lists.4)The combined three-system estimator must be established in the homogeneous population stratum,otherwise it contains heterogeneity bias and underestimates the actual population size.5)Under stratified double sampling,t

关 键 词：抽样调查 政府统计 人口行政记录 组合式三系统估计量 分层刀切法 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]