江西省水资源生态足迹评价与预测  

Evaluation and prediction of water resources ecological footprint in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：秦欢欢 黄丽想 QIN Huanhuan;HUANG Lixiang(State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,East China Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学核资源与环境国家重点实验室,江西南昌330013 [2]东华理工大学水资源与环境工程学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第7期104-112,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104)。

摘　　要：为了定量评价江西省水资源生态安全的状况,采用水资源生态足迹模型、系统动力学法和情景分析法,通过构建江西省水资源利用系统动力学模型,设计了保持现状(JS1)、经济增长(JS2)、节约用水(JS3)、综合发展(JS4)4种发展情景,对现状(1999~2021年)和未来(2022~2050年)江西省水资源生态足迹进行评价与预测。结果表明:现状年份江西省水资源生态足迹和生态承载力均呈缓慢平稳上升趋势,水资源生态协调性较好,处于较安全的合理利用水平;未来年份4种发展情景下江西省水资源生态足迹呈增长趋势、水资源生态盈余呈下降趋势,除情景JS3外的其余情景均出现了水资源利用不安全的情况。经过比较,情景JS4具有较适中的水资源可持续利用评价指标,能够兼顾经济的发展和水资源的保护,是满足江西省水资源可持续利用的最佳情景。江西省在未来应采取节约用水、提高用水效率、合理调整产业结构等措施保证社会经济和水资源的可持续发展与利用。研究成果可为区域水资源可持续发展提供科学依据。In order to quantitatively evaluate the situation of water resources ecological security in Jiangxi Province,this paper adopted the water resources ecological footprint model,system dynamics method and scenario analysis to construct a system dynamics model of water resources utilization in Jiangxi Province,and designed four scenarios as status quo(JS1),economic growth(JS2),water conservation(JS3)and comprehensive development(JS4).The present(1999~2021)and future(2022-2050)ecological footprint of water resources in Jiangxi Province were evaluated and predicted.The results showed that the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in Jiangxi Province in the current year were rising slowly and steadily,and the ecological coordination of water resources was good and at a safe and reasonable utilization level.The water resources ecological footprint under the four scenarios in the future years in Jiangxi Province showed an increasing trend,and the water resources ecological surplus showed a decreasing trend.Except for scenario JS3,unsafe water resources utilization occurred in other scenarios.Scenario JS4 had a relatively moderate evaluation index for water resources sustainable utilization,which could give consideration to both economic development and water resources protection and was the best scenario for water resources sustainable utilization in Jiangxi Province.In the future,Jiangxi Province should take measures including saving water,improving water use efficiency,reasonably adjusting industrial structure,etc.,to ensure the sustainable development and utilization of social economy and water resources.The research results can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of regional water resources.

关 键 词：水资源生态足迹 水资源生态承载力 水资源可持续利用 系统动力学模型 江西省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]