1990-2019年中国烧伤发病率及死亡率趋势的年龄-时期-队列模型分析  

Age-Period-Cohort Model Analysis of Trends in Burn Morbidity and Mortality in China From 1990 to 2019

作　　者：郭绍彬 唐世杰[1] 张万聪[1] GUO Shaobin;TANG Shijie;ZHANG Wancong(Department of Burn and Plastic Surgery,the Second Affi liated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College,Shantou 515041,Guangdong,China;Department of Burn and Plastic Surgery,the Second People's Hospital of Shantou,Shantou 515000,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]汕头大学医学院第二附属医院烧伤整形外科,广东汕头515041 [2]汕头市第二人民医院烧伤整形外科,广东汕头515000

出　　处：《中国美容医学》2023年第7期9-13,共5页Chinese Journal of Aesthetic Medicine

基　　金：汕头市科技计划医疗卫生类别项目(编号:220506156491348);李嘉诚基金会交叉研究项目(编号:2020LKSFG18B,2020LKSFG02E)。

摘　　要：目的:分析中国烧伤发病率、死亡率在年龄、时期及队列方面的变化趋势。方法:数据来源于全球疾病负担(Global burdenofdiseasestudy,GBD)数据库,从中收集1990年-2019年关于全球及中国热力烧伤相关资料,并使用年龄-时期-队列模型探索中国烧伤发病率及死亡率的年龄、时期及队列效应。结果:中国烧伤标准化发病率在过去30年间总体呈上升趋势,从1990年的76.32/10万上升至2019年的87.08/10万,总体上升14.1%。中国烧伤标化死亡率几乎持续下降,从1990年的1.90/10万下降至2019年的0.72/10万,总体下降62.1%。年龄效应对中国烧伤发病率的影响表现为上升-下降-上升趋势,时期为先下降后上升趋势,队列则为上升趋势。年龄效应对中国烧伤死亡率影响表现在70岁后快速上升,而时期及队列则为持续下降。结论:结合年龄效应及队列效应分析,中国烧伤发病率主要集中在40岁以下人群,应注意该年龄段人群的安全教育及环境安全管理。年龄效应对中国烧伤死亡率影响最明显,尤其是70岁以上人群,应注意做好该年龄段人群的陪护工作。Objective Investigated the variations in the trends of age,period and cohort eff ect on burn morbidity and mortality in China.Methods The data were collected from the global burden of disease(GBD)database from 1990 to 2019 about global and Chinese thermal burns.The age-period-cohort model were used to explore the age,period and cohort eff ect of burn morbidity and mortality in China.Results The overall trend of the standardized incidence of burns in China has increased over the past 30 years,from 76.32/100000 in 1990 to 87.08/100000 in 2019,with an overall increase of 14.1%.The standardized mortality rate of burns in China has decreased almost continuously from 1.90/100000 in 1990 to 0.72/100000 in 2019,an overall decrease of 62.1%.The eff ect of age eff ect on incidence of burns in China showed a rising-declining-rising trend,with a declining followed by an increasing trend for the period and an increasing trend for the cohort.The eff ect of age eff ect on burn mortality in China showed a rapid increase after age 70 years,while the period and cohort showed a continuous decrease.Conclusion Combining the age eff ect and cohort eff ect analysis,the incidence of burn injury in China is mainly concentrated in people under 40 years old,and attention should be paid to safety education and environmental safety management for this age group.The age eff ect has the most obvious impact on the burn mortality rate in China,especially for people over 70 years old,and attention should be paid to the escort work for this age group.

关 键 词：烧伤 发病率 死亡率 趋势 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R644[医药卫生—外科学]