2022年中国水果市场形势分析与后市展望  

China's Fruits Market Situation in 2022 and Its Future Prospects

作　　者：侯煜庐 赵俊晔[1] Hou Yulu;Zhao Junye(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2023年第6期7-12,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：中国农科院信息所创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2023-AII)。

摘　　要：2022年中国水果总体丰产,供给量全年较为宽松;消费水平持续受到抑制,年底迎来小热潮;全国水果批发月均价全年高位运行,同比连续30个月上涨;水果贸易出口减少,进口量减额增,贸易逆差较上年扩大。预计2023年中国水果市场产量增长,消费提振,价格走势维持年内先涨后跌的季节性波动趋势。2022年中国水果市场存在新需求增长与市场供应不及时的结构性矛盾,生产成本上涨持续推高水果价格抑制消费需求和多地苹果种植收益下降致砍伐果树等现象值得关注。基于此,建议后期加强市场监测和引导,继续优化水果产业结构,提升水果产业预警和抗灾能力,开发水果产品精深加工赋能产业增收。China's fruit was plentiful in 2022,and the supply of fruit was relatively loose throughout the year.Slow consumption during almost the whole year,with a small boom at the end of the year.The national average monthly wholesale price of fruits runs at a high level throughout the year,rising for 30 consecutive months year-on-year.Trade deficit widened compared with the previous year,with the decrease in export and the increase in import value while the decrease in import volume.It was forecasted that fruit production and consumer demand will increase in 2023,and fruit prices will rise first and then fall with a trend of seasonal fluctuation.There was a structural contradiction between supply and demand in China's fruit market in 2022.The rising cost of production and the decline in apple planting income are also worthy of attention.Based on this,it was recommended to strengthen market supervision and guidance in the later stage,optimize the industrial structure,improve the abilities of disaster resistance and the early warning of the fruit industry,develop fruit intensive processing products,and help farmers increase income.

关 键 词：水果市场 价格 贸易 消费 风险防范 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]