RCEP实施对中国化工产品贸易的影响——基于动态递归GTAP的模拟分析  

Impact of the implementation of RCEP on China′s trade in chemical products: simulation analysis based on dynamic recursive GTAP

作　　者：赵青松[1] 李彦锋 ZHAO Qingsong;LI Yanfeng(School of International Economy and Trade,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学国际经贸学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《天津商业大学学报》2023年第4期3-11,34,共10页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘一带一路’背景下中国与欧亚经济联盟数字贸易合作模式与建设路径研究”(21XGJ004);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目“RCEP实施对中国重点进出口商品产出及贸易的影响研究”(XJUFE2023K026)。

摘　　要：RCEP生效代表着全球规模最大的自贸区开始实施,化工产业作为国民经济的重要行业之一,RCEP实施将对中国化工产品贸易产生重要影响。总结近20年来中国化工产品的贸易现状,采用区域显性比较优势指数和贸易互补指数分析中国与RCEP成员国化工产品的竞争与互补关系。运用动态递归GTAP模型模拟不同情景下中国化工产品贸易的变化,研究发现:RCEP降低关税和技术性贸易壁垒、增加互联互通水平及投资将促进中国化工产品贸易大幅增长,日本、韩国、东盟是贸易增加额的主要来源地。中国要充分利用RCEP相关条款,扩大化工产品的出口,并做好应对化工行业贸易摩擦的准备。The entry into force of RCEP represents the initiation of the world′s largest free trade zone,and the chemical industry as one of the important industries of national economy,the implementation of RCEP will have an important impact on China′s chemical product trade.The paper summarizes the trade status of China′s chemical products in the recent 20 years and uses RRCA and TCI indicators to analyze the competition and complementarity of chemical products between China and RCEP member countries.It uses the dynamic recursive GTAP model to simulate the changes of China′s chemical product trade in different scenarios.It finds that RCEP reduces tariffs and technical trade barriers and improves the level of connectivity and investment,which will promote a significant increase in China′s chemical product trade.The import and export volume of China with Japan,South Korea and ASEAN will increase significantly.China should make full use of the relevant provisions of RCEP to expand the export of chemical products and be prepared to deal with trade frictions in the chemical industry.

关 键 词：区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP) 中国化工产品贸易 贸易创造和转移效应 动态递归GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F753[经济管理—国际贸易]