化工园区安全韧性内涵及量化理论模型研究  

Research on safety resilience connotation and quantitative theoretical model of chemical industry parks

作　　者：杨国梁[1,2] 魏利军 多英全[1,2] 王如君 王黎珣[1,2,3] 王冬冬 苏明清[3] 王海顺 YANG Guoliang;WEI Lijun;DUO Yingquan;WANG Rujun;WANG Lixun;WANG Dongdong;SU Mingqing;WANG Haishun(China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China;Key Laboratory of Major Hazard and Chemical Industry Park System Safety,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100012,China;School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [2]重大危险源与化工园区系统安全应急管理部重点实验室,北京100012 [3]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第7期5-10,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001200)。

摘　　要：为探索化工园区整体安全生产水平的量化理论与方法,开展化工园区安全韧性的内涵及量化理论模型研究。基于我国化工园区安全生产风险防控的难点,分析化工园区安全韧性研究的必要性,提出化工园区安全韧性的概念,将监测预测、抵御响应、适应恢复以及学习提升能力作为化工园区安全韧性的关键潜能,论述化工园区安全韧性的构成,并基于韧性曲线建立化工园区安全韧性量化的理论模型。研究结果表明:韧性内涵和量化理论模型可直观地表现化工园区风险防控措施的安全效益,可指导化工园区的整体安全水平的持续提升。In order to explore the quantitative theory and methods for the overall work safety level of chemical industry parks,the connotation and quantitative theoretical model of safety resilience in chemical industry parks were studied.Based on the difficulties of work safety risk prevention and control in chemical industry parks in China,the necessity of research on the safety resilience of chemical industry parks was analyzed,and the concept of safety resilience of chemical industry parks was proposed.The monitoring and prediction,resistance and response,adaptation and recovery,and learning and enhancement capabilities were taken as the key potential of safety resilience of chemical industry parks,then the composition of safety resilience of chemical industry parks was discussed,and a theoretical model for quantifying the safety resilience of chemical industry parks was established based on the resilience curve.The research results show that the resilience connotation and quantitative theoretical model can intuitively represent the safety benefits of risk control measures in chemical parks,and can guide the sustainable improvement of the safety level of chemical parks.

关 键 词：化工园区 韧性内涵 韧性曲线 韧性潜能 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]