面向需水不确定性的水资源优化配置的研究进展  

Research Progress of Optimal Water Allocation Towards Water Demand Uncertainty

作　　者：闫凌璐 申晓晶[1,2,3] 贺华翔 YAN Linglu;SHEN Xiaojing;HE Huaxiang(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Engineering and Technology Research Center of Water-Saving Irrigation and Water Resource Regulation in Ningxia,Yinchuan 750021,China;Engineering Research Center Funded by Ministry of Education for Effective Utilization of Modern Agricultural Water Resources in Arid Areas,Yinchuan 750021,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院,宁夏银川750021 [2]宁夏节水灌溉与水资源调控工程技术研究中心,宁夏银川750021 [3]旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部工程研究中心,宁夏银川750021 [4]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《宁夏工程技术》2023年第2期141-147,共7页Ningxia Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51869023);宁夏重点研发计划项目(引才专项)(2019BEB04029);宁夏重点研发计划项目(2019BEH03010);宁夏高等学校一流学科建设(水利工程学科)资助项目(NXYLXK2021A03);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2021AAC03043);宁夏大学自然科学基金项目(ZR18018)。

摘　　要：随着人类社会经济的不断发展,地表水资源和地下水资源之间的水循环逐渐呈现出复杂化的趋势。降水量和水资源量逐渐减少,水的供给有限,使得水资源优化配置问题逐渐成为热点研究问题。水资源优化配置有利于缓和“三生”用水之间的竞争,促进经济和生态之间的协调发展。在传统的农业与生态水资源优化配置研究中,研究者往往因重视经济效益而忽视了农业与生态需水对水资源系统的影响,农业与生态需水的不确定性增加了水资源管理的难度。介绍了不确定性问题研究方法在水资源优化配置中的发展历程,分别对农业需水、生态需水及其不确定性在水资源规划和优化配置中的应用等方面的发展历程进行了总结。根据用水的周期规律和不确定因素建立的水资源优化配置模型与实际更为相符,能够更加有效地解决决策合理性不足的问题。同时提出了对未来发展方向的展望:在水资源优化配置模型中充分考虑生态需水和农业需水的约束,构建水资源预报系统,使水资源配置决策更加合理。With the continuous development of economy and human society,the water cycle between surface water resources and ground water resources gradually shows a complex trend.Due to the decreasing precipitation and water resources and the limited water supply,the optimal allocation of water resources has gradually become a hot research issue.The optimal water resources allocation is beneficial to alleviate the competition among different water using systems,and promotes the coordinated development of economy and ecology.In previous agricultural and ecological water resources optimization studies,researchers often ignore the impact of agricultural and ecological water demand on the water resources system because of the economic benefits,and the uncertainty of agricultural and ecological water demand increases the difficulty of water resources management.This paper introduces the development of uncertainty problem research methods in water resources optimization allocation,and summarizes the development of agricultural water demand,ecological water demand and their uncertainty in water resources planning and optimization allocation.The water resources optimization allocation model established according to the cyclical pattern of water use and uncertainties is more consistent with the reality,and can effectively solve the problem of insufficient decision rationality.A prospect for the future development direction is proposed accordingly as to fully consider the constraints of ecological water demand and agricultural water demand in the water resources optimization allocation model,and to build a water resources forecasting system,so as to make water resources allocation decisions more reasonable.

关 键 词：农业 生态 需水不确定性 水资源优化配置 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]