基于改进DIIM的洪涝灾害下供应链系统中断关联型损失评估研究  

Research on economic loss assessment of supply chain disruption under flood disaster based on improved DIIM

作　　者：王婷[1] 仇蕾[1] 汪志强 支彦玲 WANG Ting;QIU Lei;WANG Zhiqiang;ZHI Yanling(Management Science Institute,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Information Management and Artificial Intelligence College,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310058,China;Business School,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213159,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学管理科学研究所,江苏南京211100 [2]浙江财经大学信息管理与人工智能学院,浙江杭州310058 [3]常州大学商学院,江苏常州213159

出　　处：《水利经济》2023年第4期88-93,106,共7页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(91846203)。

摘　　要：为解决暴雨洪涝灾害频发对企业生产和整条供应链的运行带来的巨额经济损失问题,在考虑供应链系统相互关联的基础上,运用改进的动态非正常程度投入产出模型(DIIM)模拟洪涝灾害导致企业非正常程度的动态运行状态,测算洪涝灾害给供应链系统带来的直接损失及关联损失。以2021年马来西亚洪涝灾害影响下的某制造业供应链系统为例,选取相关指标对洪涝灾害导致供应链系统中断带来的关联型损失进行评估。结果表明:洪涝灾害引发的供应链各节点功能下降程度由需求端和供应端两方干扰共同影响,非正常程度和损失都是一个动态变化的过程;仿真数据直观显示了洪涝灾害下供应链中断发生、扩散及恢复过程,有助于决策者对洪涝灾害下供应链系统运行进行分析和管理。In recent years,heavy rain and flood disasters occur frequently,which seriously hinders the operation of the supply chain system and causes huge economic losses.In this paper,the correlation characteristics of supply chain nodes are evaluated by the improved grey fuzzy OWA(Ordered Weighted Averaging)operator method.Then,the dynamic inoperable input-output model(DIIM)is used to simulate the time-dependent inoperable operation state of supply chain system under the influence of flood.On this basis,a case study was carried out on the manufacturing supply chain system affected by floods in Malaysia in 2021.Four indexes related to flood disasters and enterprise attributes were extracted to evaluate the disruption losses of the supply chain system.The results show that the function decline of each node of the supply chain caused by flood is affected by the interference of both the demand side and the supply side,and both the inoperability and the loss are a dynamic process.The simulation data intuitively showed the occurrence,diffusion and recovery process of supply chain disruption under floods.Therefore,it is convenient for decision makers to analyze and manage flood events and supply chain system operation.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 供应链中断 投入产出模型 损失评估 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]