基于湍能耗散率的航空颠簸集成预报方法  

An Ensemble Prediction Method of Aviation Turbulence Based on the Energy Dissipation Rate

作　　者：蔡雪薇 万子为 吴文辉 杨波 蚁志鸿[3] CAI Xuewei;WAN Ziwei;WU Wenhui;YANG Bo;YI Zhihong(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081;CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,Beijing 100081;Xiamen Airlines,Xiamen 361006)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 [3]厦门航空有限公司,厦门361006

出　　处：《大气科学》2023年第4期1085-1098,共14页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：中国工业和信息化部项目MJ-2014-J-70。

摘　　要：为提升对飞机颠簸的客观预报能力,设计一种新的基于湍能耗散率(Energy Dissipation Rate,简称EDR)的航空颠簸集成预报算法,预报结果可实现与机载探测到的新型颠簸实况直接对比验证,且预报强度不受机型差异的影响。该算法利用中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报系统(CMA-MESO)的基本气象要素计算多个代表晴空颠簸(Clear Air Turbulence,简称CAT)和山地波(Mountain Wave Turbulence,简称MWT)的预报指数,在各预报指数和颠簸实况EDR的概率密度函数均基本符合正态分布的假设条件下,利用前期各指数和实况之间的概率密度匹配关系,将原预报指数在实时数值预报中转换为以EDR为单位的预报值;再将其根据预报评分给予不同权重,集成为包含晴空颠簸和山地波的EDR颠簸预报产品。主客观检验结果均显示这种颠簸预报产品能够大致反映不同区域和类型的颠簸情况,多种算法的集成预报效果总体好于单一指数预报;相对作用特征检验(ROC)表明轻度以上颠簸的预报结果可以提高命中率并降低空报率,具有较高的预报正技巧。To improve the objective prediction of aircraft turbulence,a new aviation turbulence ensemble prediction algorithm based on the energy dissipation rate(referred to as EDR)is designed.The forecast value can be directly compared and verified with the new turbulence data(EDR)obtained by airborne detection,and the forecast intensity is unaffected by the difference in aircraft type.The algorithm calculates multiple forecast indices representing clear air turbulence(CAT)and mountain wave turbulence(MWT)using the basic meteorological elements of the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Forecast System of CMA(CMA-MESO).Under the assumption that the EDR observations and predicted turbulence diagnostics both approximately follow a normal distribution.According to the probability density matching relationship between previous forecast indices and EDR observations,the original forecast index is converted into the forecast value with EDR in the real-time numerical forecast.Multiple forecast indices are given different weights according to the forecast scores,and they are integrated into EDR turbulence forecast products,including CAT and MWT.The subjective and objective verification results show that this turbulence forecast product can roughly reflect the turbulence in different regions and types.The integration prediction of multiple algorithms is generally better than that of a single index forecast.The resulting relative operating characteristics curves show that the forecast results of light-orgreater intensity turbulence increase the hit rate and reduce the false alarm rate,and the aviation turbulence ensemble prediction algorithm has high forecasting capability.

关 键 词：颠簸 湍能耗散率(EDR) 权重集成 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]