基于统计降尺度的中国高温和热浪中短期预报  

Short and medium term forecasts of high temperature and heat wave in China based on statistical downscaling

作　　者：徐文浩 吴立峰[2] XU Wenhao;WU Lifeng(Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;School of Hydraulic and Ecological Engineering,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学现代农业工程学院,云南昆明650500 [2]南昌工程学院水利与生态工程学院,江西南昌330099

出　　处：《南昌工程学院学报》2023年第3期23-28,共6页Journal of Nanchang Institute of Technology

基　　金：江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ180925)。

摘　　要：基于中国51个气象站2011—2015年5年日最高温度数据,以NOAA的第二代全球集合预报系统提供的1~8d天气预报日最高温度数据以等距累积分布函数匹配(EDCDFm)法进行降尺度后作为预报值,统计分析这5年的高温和热浪情况,将气象站点实测值和预报值进行比较,对站点年高温日次数和年热浪发生频率的预报进行适用性评价。结果表明,通过对年高温日次数和年热浪频率的拟合,相关系数R2分别超过了0.8和0.7;但有些站点由于所处的地理环境,没有高温和热浪的情况;EDCDFm方法能很好地提高数值预报系统的精度,1~8d天气预报的修正值对站点高温热浪事件预报具有较好的适用性,并且1d预报的效果最好。Based on the daily maximum temperature data of 51 meteorological stations in China from 2011 to 2015 as the measured value,the daily maximum temperature data of 1~8 d weather forecast provided by NOAA’s second-generation global forecasting system were downscaled by the equidistant cumulative distribution function matching(EDCDFm)method as the forecast value,and the high temperature and heat wave conditions in the five years were statistically analyzed.The measured values and forecast values of meteorological stations were compared,and the applicability of the forecast of annual high temperature times and annual heat wave frequency was evaluated.The results show that the coefficient of determination R 2 is more than 0.8 and 0.7 respectively by fitting the annual high temperature times and annual heat wave frequency.However,some stations have no high temperature and heat wave due to the geographical environment.The EDCDFm method can improve the accuracy of the numerical prediction system.The correction value of 1~8 d weather forecast has good applicability to the prediction of high temperature heat wave events at stations,and the effect of 1 d forecast is the best.

关 键 词：高温热浪 统计降尺度 中短期预报 数值天气预报 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程]