2004—2018年中国内地伤寒和副伤寒疫情时空统计分析  

Spatio-temporal statistical analysis of epidemic situation of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland from 2004 to 2018

作　　者：杨丹凌 梁凯琼 苏海霞 文立 黎燕宁[1] Yang Danling;Liang Kaiqiong;Su Haixia;Wen Li;Li Yanning(Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning 530021,China)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学公共卫生学院生物统计学教研室,南宁530021

出　　处：《广西医科大学学报》2023年第6期1019-1025,共7页Journal of Guangxi Medical University

基　　金：广西研究生教育创新计划项目(No.YCSW2022222)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2004—2018年中国31个省、直辖市、自治区伤寒和副伤寒疫情变化趋势及时空分布情况,为伤寒和副伤寒防控提供依据。方法:基于2004—2018年中国公共卫生科学数据中心平台报告的伤寒和副伤寒病例数据,进行描述并采用Joinpoint回归、空间自相关、空间扫描分析疫情的时空效应。结果:2004—2018年我国内地伤寒和副伤寒疫情逐年下降,<5岁儿童是发病主要人群且发病率呈现上升,2011—2018年度变化百分比(APC)为6.5%(P<0.05)。2004—2018年伤寒和副伤寒发病率存在空间正相关(Moran’s I指数为0.087~0.389,Z>1.960,P<0.05)。时空扫描发现:聚集时间为2004—2006年(LLR=29380.06,RR=2.70,P<0.001),季节为4—9月;伤寒主要聚集在云南、广西、贵州(LLR=77653.50,RR=4.571,P<0.001);副伤寒主要聚集在广西、贵州、云南、浙江、江西、湖南(LLR=54280.50,RR=3.455,P<0.001)。结论:我国内地伤寒和副伤寒疫情逐年下降,<5岁儿童仍是发病主要人群,疫情存在明显的时间和空间效应,好发于夏季及我国南方地区。Objective:To analyze the change trend and spatial distribution of typhoid/paratyphoid fever in 31 provinces,municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions in China from 2004 to 2018,so as to provide a basis for the prevention and control of typhoid/paratyphoid fever.Methods:Based on the typhoid and paratyphoid fever case data reported by the China Public Health Science Data Center platform from 2004 to 2018,the data were described and the spatio-temporal effect of the epidemic was analyzed by Joinpoint regression,spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning.Results:The incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland decreased year by year from 2004 to 2018.Children under 5 years old were the main population and the incidence rate increased.The annual percent change(APC)from 2011 to 2018 was 6.5%(P<0.05).There was a positive spatial correlation between the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever from 2004 to 2018(Moran's I index was 0.087-0.389,Z>1.960,P<0.05).Spatio-temporal scanning showed that the aggregation time was from 2004 to 2006(LLR=29,380.06,RR=2.70,P<0.001)and the season was from April to September,typhoid fever mainly concentrated in Yunnan,Guangxi and Guizhou(LLR=77,653.50,RR=4.571,P<0.001),and paratyphoid fever mainly concentrated in Guangxi,Guizhou,Yunnan,Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Hunan(LLR=54,280.50,RR=3.455,P<0.001).Conclusion:The incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland is decreasing year by year,and children under 5 years old are still the main population.The epidemic situation shows obvious temporal and spatial effect,and is prone to occur in summer and in southern China.

关 键 词：伤寒和副伤寒 空间自相关 时空扫描 

分 类 号：R254.1[医药卫生—中医内科学]