飞机电源系统的贝叶斯概率风险评估  

Bayesian Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Aircraft Power Systems

作　　者：王燕飞[1] 杨沐华 WANG Yanfei;YANG Muhua(School of Science,Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology,Jilin City 132022,China;Central Project Department,Petrochina Jilin Petrochemical Company,Jilin City 132022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林化工学院理学院,吉林吉林132022 [2]中国石油吉林石化公司中区项目部,吉林吉林132022

出　　处：《吉林化工学院学报》2023年第1期87-94,共8页Journal of Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology

摘　　要：针对飞机电源系统,利用贝叶斯概率风险评估法(BPRA)分析系统失效的风险。建立贝叶斯(Ga-Exp)模型及共因失效组的贝叶斯(D-M)模型,以便获得5类部件失效率及各阶共因失效比例的贝叶斯估计值。根据α因子模型得到共因失效组中部件的失效率估计值。计算系统失效的贝叶斯风险概率值,定义部件失效对系统失效风险的敏感度为部件重要度指标。实证比较是否考虑共因失效的两种情况下,系统失效风险、共因失效组部件的重要度及5类部件重要度随着累积飞行时间变化的情况,验证了模型的有效性及考虑共因失效因素的必要性,为维护飞机安全运行的可靠性提供依据。In this paper,the risk of system failure was obtained through Bayesian probabilistic risk assessment method for aircraft power system.Bayesian models of(Ga-Exp)and(D-M)as to common cause failure group were established in order to obtain the Bayesian estimation of the failure rates of the five types of components and the common cause failure ratio of each order.According to the Alpha factor model,the failure rate of the components in the common cause failure group was estimated.Finally,the Bayesian risk probability of system failure was studied.The sensitivity of component failure to system failure risk was defined as component importance index.By a practical example,with the cumulative flight time,the risk of system failure,the importance of common cause failure group components and the five types of components were compared in the two cases of whether considering common cause failure.The validity of the model and the necessity of considering common cause failure factors were verified so as to provide the basis for maintaining the reliability of aircraft.

关 键 词：贝叶斯概率风险评估 飞机电源系统 共因失效 共轭先验 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]