基于逻辑博弈概率Petri网的地铁应急决策建模与分析  

Modeling and Analysis of Metro Emergency Decision Based on Logical Game Probability Petri Net

作　　者：闫哲 刘伟 杜玉越 Yan Zhe;Liu Wei;Du Yuyue(College of Computer Science and Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学计算机科学与工程学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2023年第7期1602-1618,共17页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：2022年度青岛市社会科学规划研究(QDSKL2201131)。

摘　　要：为解决逻辑Petri网不能很好地描述动态博弈过程的问题,提出逻辑博弈概率Petri网。将博弈的四要素融合到逻辑Petri网中,博弈的局中人被定义为token的一个属性,为其定义了策略集以及效用函数,并引入了信息库所。引入概率变迁和向量来表示博弈过程中先后验概率的转换关系,在贝叶斯公式的基础上引入模糊理论,以解决决策前期的信息缺失问题,并引入决策变迁来帮助理性人作出决策。使用逻辑博弈概率Petri网对地铁应急决策过程进行建模,构建系统可达图对问题进行分析,并应用Tina仿真验证模型性质,同时验证了所提出方法的可行性。In order to solve the problem that logical Petri net can not describe dynamic game process well,logical game probabilistic Petri net is proposed.The four elements of the game are integrated into the logical Petri net,and the players of the game are defined as an attribute of Token,for which the strategy set and utility function are defined,and the information database is introduced.Probability change and vector are introduced to represent the transformation relationship of empirical probability in the process of game,and fuzzy theory is introduced on the basis of Bayes formula to solve the problem of information loss in the early stage of decision making,and decision change is introduced to help rational people make decisions.Logical game probability Petri net was used to model the subway emergency decision-making process,and the system reachable graph was constructed to analyze the problem.Tina simulation was used to verify the model properties,the feasibility of the proposed method was also verified.

关 键 词：逻辑博弈概率Petri网 地铁应急决策 模糊贝叶斯公式 可达图 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]