克服认知偏见: 应急情报结构化分析的应用图景探微  

Overcoming Cognitive Bias:Exploration on the Application Landscape of Structured Analysis of Emergency Intelligence

作　　者：胡峰[1,2,3] 沈瑾秋 杨洋洋[4] Hu Feng

机构地区：[1]江苏省科学技术情报研究所,江苏南京210042 [2]江苏省科学技术发展战略研究院,江苏南京210042 [3]南京师范大学国家安全与应急管理研究中心,江苏南京210023 [4]郑州轻工业大学经济与管理学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第8期10-20,共11页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：2022年度江苏省政策引导类计划(软科学研究)项目“基于大安全观的江苏应急管理科技支撑体系建设研究”(项目编号:BR2022042);2022年度江苏省社科应用研究精品工程课题“江苏科技领域安全风险扫描及应急决策优化研究”(项目编号:22SYA-013)的成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]应急情报分析中的认知偏见是造成分析“故障”的主要因素,结构化分析的引入可以克服应急情报分析中的认知偏见。[方法/过程]在对结构化分析的出场逻辑、概念和具体方法进行规范性研究的基础上,以城市水灾害突发事件为例,根据突发事件演化周期的三阶段理论,逐一阐释了不同阶段应急情报分析的认知偏见及引发的分析失误,据此提出结构化分析方法的应对策略。[结果/结论]针对应急情报分析在黑箱阶段“过高估计”的认知偏见及“预测失灵”后果、灰箱阶段“满意策略”的认知偏见及“研判失效”后果、白箱阶段“积极偏差”的认知偏见及“评估失实”后果,提出结构化分析的应对方法:角色扮演法、竞争性假设分析法、“魔鬼代言人”。[Purpose/significance]Cognitive biases in emergency intelligence analysis are a major contributor to analytical glitch.The introduction of structured analysis can overcome the cognitive bias in emergency intelligence analysis.[Method/process]On the basis of normative research on the exit logic,concepts and specific methods of structural analysis,taking urban water disaster emergencies as an example,according to the three-stage theory of emergency evolution cycle,the analysis of emergency intelligence in different stages is explained one by one cognitive bias and the analysis errors caused by it,based on which,the coping strategies of the structured analysis method are put forward.[Result/conclusion]Aiming at the cognitive bias of overestimation and the consequences of prediction failure in the black box stage of emergency intelligence analysis,the cognitive bias of satisfactory strategy in the gray box stage and the consequences of research and judgment failure,and the cognitive bias of positive bias in the white box stage knowledge bias and the consequences of misassessment and put forward structural analysis methods:role-playing method,competitive hypothesis analysis method,devil’s advocate.

关 键 词：应急情报 结构化分析 突发事件 城市水灾害 认知偏见 证伪主义 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]