基于技术主题演化的颠覆性技术识别研究  

Research on Disruptive Technology Identification Based on The Evolution of Technology Themes

作　　者：单晓红[1] 韩晟熙 刘晓燕[1] Shan Xiaohong

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第8期113-123,共11页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“社交媒体数据驱动的决策支持理论、方法与实践”(项目编号:21FGLB042);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“技术创新网络关系治理机制研究”(项目编号:20FGLB004)的成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]颠覆性技术对技术和市场具有双重影响,无论是对科技发展还是市场结构调整都起到十分重要的作用,准确识别颠覆性技术能够解决可能出现的技术壁垒,对国家和企业具有重要意义。[方法/过程]从技术主题的演化趋势和演化形式两个维度提出颠覆性技术识别框架。首先,利用LDA模型和基于全局和局部影响力的社区探测方法识别领域内的技术主题。其次,基于颠覆性技术的“突变性”和“融合性”特征,引入技术主题时序共现网络和主题引用网络对主题间的演化趋势和演化形式进行判别,实现颠覆性技术的识别。最后,以人工智能领域为例验证提出的颠覆性技术识别方法的可行性和有效性。[结果/结论]该方法能够准确实现颠覆性技术的识别,研究识别出人工智能领域的7项颠覆性技术,包括“机器人模块化设计方法及应用”“相关领域机器人技术及应用主题”“仿生机器人技术及应用”“自动无人智能系统”“自动驾驶技术”“服务机器人技术及应用”和“机器人部件优化技术”这有利于我国抓住科技创新主动权,加快颠覆性技术布局。[Purpose/significance]Disruptive technologies have a dual impact on technology and the market,and they are crucial to both technological advancement and market restructuring.Accurately identifying disruptive technologies can help nations and businesses overcome potential technical barriers,which is very important.[Method/process]This study offers a methodology for identifying disruptive technologies in two dimensions:the evolutionary trend and the evolution of the technology topic.To begin,technical themes in the domain are found using LDA models and community identification approaches based on global and local influences.Second,based on the“mutate”and“convergent”qualities of disruptive technologies,we introduce a technology topic co-occurrence network and a topic citation network to discriminate the evolutionary trends and evolutionary forms among the subjects,helping us to identify disruptive technologies.Finally,by using the artificial intelligence industry as an example,the viability and efficacy of the disruptive technology detection approach described in this research are confirmed.[Result/conclusion]According to the study’s findings,the seven disruptive technologies in the field of artificial intelligence include robot component optimization techniques,related field robotics and application themes,bionic robotics and applications,automated unmanned intelligent systems,autonomous driving technologies,service robotics and applications and robot component optimization technologies.The methodology provides precise identification of disruptive technologies,allowing China to seize the lead in science and technology innovation and accelerate the development of disruptive technologies.

关 键 词：颠覆性技术 技术主题演化 突变性 融合性 人工智能 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] G353.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]