大型水陆两栖飞机AG600着水搜救风险评估  

Risk assessment of large amphibiousaircraft AG600 landing in water

作　　者：熊伟 胡晨阳 杜宝库 XIONG Wei;HU Chen-yang;DU Bao-ku(College of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学船舶与海洋工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第5期1375-1382,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：民用飞机专项科研项目(MJ-2015-F-033)。

摘　　要：为了对大型水陆两栖飞机AG600在着水搜救过程中的安全风险进行分析,首先总结了会对救援过程产生风险的自然环境因素和人为因素,结合飞机自身指标,建立了水陆两栖飞机AG600着水搜救风险评估体系,在此基础上利用层次分析法计算出了各指标权重;其次,通过指派法构建了各指标隶属函数并确定了模糊综合评价流程;最后,以南海海区某海难事故作为实例背景,对大型水陆两栖飞机AG600参与此次海难事故救援活动的风险性进行了评估。研究表明,评估模型可以量化水陆两栖飞机着水搜救风险,从而为AG600在海上救援体系中的应用提供理论支持。This paper aims to analyze the safety risks of large amphibious aircraft AG600 during search and rescue on the water.The natural environmental factors and human factors that may cause risks are summarized first.In combination with the aircraft's indicators,a risk assessment system for the amphibious aircraft AG600 during search and rescue on the water is established including 5 first-class indicators and 14 second-class indicators.On this basis,a judgment matrix questionnaire is prepared and distributed to relevant experts,who filled in according to the proportional scale table.After sorting out the collected questionnaire data,the weight of each index is calculated based on immediate constituent analysis.Further,with the help of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the method of expert scoring to determine the degree of membership is improved.The evaluation grade is divided into five levels and quantified with specific figures.The membership function of each index is determined by using the assignment method and the nature of the index.By substituting the index value into the membership function of the evaluation grade and the membership function of the corresponding index,the membership evaluation matrix of the index is obtained.After the first-class fuzzy evaluation and the second-class fuzzy evaluation are carried out on the judgment matrix and the weight value,the weighted average value is obtained by using the weighted average method,and the evaluation result is acquired by comparing the weighted average value with the evaluation grade.Finally,taking a maritime accident in the South China Sea as an example,the risk of the large amphibious aircraft AG600 participating in the rescue activities of the maritime accident is evaluated.The evaluation results are helpful to provide theoretical support for the application of AG600 in the maritime rescue system.

关 键 词：安全工程 水陆两栖飞机 层次分析法 模糊综合评价方法 风险评估 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]