基于元胞自动机的人员疏散出口选择博弈模型  

Game model of evacuation exit selection based on Cellular Automata

作　　者：丁元春[1] 李琦 DING Yuan-chun;LI Qi(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学应急管理与安全工程学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第5期1658-1667,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家国家自然科学基金项目(72164016)。

摘　　要：为提高人员出口选择行为的疏散效率,针对紧急情况下多出口房间的人员疏散过程,提出了一种结合博弈论方法和元胞自动机模型的出口选择优化模型。该模型基于博弈论中的最佳反应动力学概念,考虑了疏散人员之间的相互影响,其中每个人员通过对其他人的选择策略做出最佳响应。分析了影响人员出口选择行为的关键因素,包括人员的耐心坚定程度、出口可见性和出口熟悉度、出口布局以及最佳出口间距等。并将此模型与模拟软件Pathfinder的进行对比,验证了其高效性。结果表明,低耐心程度会导致人员犹豫徘徊行为,不利于疏散。对于单出口选择情况,出口位置分布在墙壁中间时人员疏散效率最高。对于多出口选择情况,当两个出口位于同一墙壁时,出口的最佳间距应设为所处墙壁长度的0.5倍。而位于不同墙壁时,出口对称设计下的人员疏散选择时间最短。To improve the evacuation efficiency of people's exit selection behavior,and in response to the evacuation process for rooms with multiple exits in case of emergency,this paper proposes an export selection optimization model combining a game theory method and cellular automata model.First,the model designs an algorithm on how personnel chooses suitable exits,based on the concept of optimal reaction dynamics in game theory,and considers the interaction among evacuated personnel.Each person is affected by others'choices to make the best reflection.The model is divided into two stages:on the one hand,the goal of evacuating people is to choose the fastest escape route and escape in the fastest time.On the other hand,other factors influence the decision of the evacuee.Then these key factors that affect personnel exit choices are analyzed,including personnel's patience and firmness,exit visibility and exit familiarity,exit layout,and optimal exit spacing.Finally,the game theory model is simulated and compared with Pathfinder software to verify its efficiency.The research results show that the game-theoretic exit model can obtain the evacuation of people in the room more efficiently;the exit selection patience level will increase with the increase of the number of people,and the low level of patience will lead to people's hesitation and wandering behavior,which is not conducive to evacuation;for a single exit in the case of selection,when the exit distribution position is in the middle of the wall,the evacuation time is the smallest,and the evacuation efficiency is the highest;for the selection of multiple exits,when two exits are located in the same wall,the optimal distance between the exits should be set to 0.5 times the length of the wall.When two exits are located on different walls and the exits are symmetrically distributed,the evacuation time can be reduced and the evacuation can be facilitated.

关 键 词：安全工程 博弈论 元胞自动机模型 出口选择 人员疏散 

分 类 号：X956[环境科学与工程—安全科学]