基于层次熵权-云模型城市道路塌陷风险评价研究  

Research on road collapse riskevaluation based on cloud model andAHP- EWM

作　　者：周子勇[1] 石浩宇 董毓良 凡伟伟 ZHOU Ziyong;SHI Haoyu;DONG Yuliang;FAN Weiwei(College of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;Beijing Global Safety Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100038,China;Hefei Theone Safety Technology Limited Company,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)地球科学学院,北京102249 [2]北京辰安科技股份有限公司,北京100038 [3]合肥泽众城市智能科技有限公司,合肥230601

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第6期1752-1761,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFF0301002)。

摘　　要：城市道路塌陷灾害频发,有效的塌陷风险评价对于塌陷的防治具有重要意义。道路塌陷成因具有模糊性、随机性、复杂性等特点,为尽可能保证其评价过程的客观有效,通过识别城市道路塌陷风险要素,构建城市道路塌陷的风险评价体系,使用层次熵权云模型进行组合评价,建立道路塌陷风险评价模型。将该模型应用于宝安区部分道路塌陷风险评价,结果表明:6条主干道基于道路塌陷风险评价模型评价结果与探地雷达(Ground Penetrating Radar,GPR)实测风险评价结果吻合度较高,具有一定的应用能力。该模型为城市道路塌陷的防治起到了积极的指导作用,为城市安全风险防控起到了一定的参考作用。The causes of road collapse accidents are characterized by fuzziness,randomness,complexity,etc.,and the objectivity and effectiveness of evaluation results should be guaranteed as far as possible.In order to solve this problem,the AHP-EWM-Cloud model is proposed in this paper to evaluate the risk of road collapse.Firstly,the risk evaluation indicator system of urban road collapse is constructed by identifying the risk factors of urban road collapse.Secondly,the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)is used to give the initial weights,and then the Entropy Weight Method(EWM)is adopted for the reconstruction of more objective weights so as to make up for the problem of the prominent subjectivity of the weights in the AHP.Subsequently,the cloud model is used to construct the risk standard,and then its digital characteristics and cloud map are adopted to describe uncertainty and randomness of ground collapse risk.Finally,the model is applied to the collapse risk evaluation of six roads in Bao'an District.The evaluation is carried out on small-scale units first,and then on the whole road.The unit evaluation results show that multiple consecutive evaluation units on some roads are in a red high risk,indicating that road collapse has the characteristics of mass occurrence,and thus the detailed risk investigation should be carried out in a targeted manner for high risk evaluation units and their adjacent units.The overall evaluation results show that the road collapse risk of the four main roads is relatively high,but the overall risk is controllable,so the general investigation of hidden risks should be strengthened.The evaluation results are compared with the measured results of Ground Penetrating Radar(GPR).The results show that the risk matching rate of gradeⅣis 76.09%,gradeⅢ64.29%,gradeⅡ55.56%,gradeⅠ50.00%,and total matching rate 70.42%,which validates the applicability and feasibility of the model.The model proposed in this paper avoids the problem of uneven weights in the subjective and objective evaluation to som

关 键 词：安全工程 道路塌陷 风险评价 熵权 云模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]