急性一氧化碳中毒与气象因素相关性分析及预测方法研究  

Study on Correlation Analysis Between Acute Carbon Monoxide Poisoning and Meteorological Factors and Prediction Method

作　　者：黄英华[1] 朱远群 阮海林 陈剑兵 洪伟良 Huang Yinghua;Zhu Yuanqun;Ruan Hailin;Chen Jianbing;Hong Weiliang(Liuzhou People's Hospital,Liuzhou 545000,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China;The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University(Liuzhou Workers'Hospital),Liuzhou 545000,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China;Liuzhou Meteorological Bureau,Liuzhou 545000,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China;Liuzhou Environmental Protection Bureau Monitoring and Protection Station,Liuzhou 545000,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China)

机构地区：[1]柳州市人民医院,广西柳州545000 [2]广西医科大第四附属医院(柳州市工人医院),广西柳州545000 [3]柳州市气象局,广西柳州545000 [4]柳州市环保局监测保护站,广西柳州545000

出　　处：《中国社区医师》2023年第20期152-154,共3页Chinese Community Doctors

基　　金：广西壮族自治区卫生厅立项科研课题(编号:Z2014395);广西急诊与医学救援人才小高地·广西高校急诊医学重点实验室项目资助(编号:GXJZ201416)。

摘　　要：目的:调查分析急性一氧化碳中毒(ACOP)与气象因素的相关性,建立区域性ACOP气象预报模型,为ACOP防治提供科学依据。方法:选取2015年1月—2017年12月柳州市人民医院、柳州市工人医院、柳州市中医院及广西柳钢医疗有限公司医院收治的4181例ACOP患者作为研究对象。收集同期气象要素相关数据资料,进行相关性分析,构建ACOP风险等级的有序多分类Logistic回归模型,对模型进行拟合检验和效用验证。结果:2015年1月—2017年12月柳州市4家综合性医院收治的4181例ACOP患者中,2015年1112例,占26.60%;2016年1433例,占34.27%;2017年1636例,占39.13%,发病率呈逐年上升趋势。ACOP发生月份具有明显的季节特性,多发于冬春季。21:00至次日3:00为ACOP发病高峰期。日平均ACOP人数与平均气温、平均风速呈负相关(P<0.001),与24 h温差呈正相关(P<0.001)。对模型进行拟合检验,统计量服从自由度为3的卡方分布,模型有统计学意义(P<0.001)。模型总体实施的正确率,预测误差≤Ⅰ级的占比为82.47%。结论:ACOP的发生与平均气温、平均风速、24 h温差等气象因子密切相关,利用气象因子建立区域ACOP预报模型可以预测ACOP风险等级,有效防治ACOP。Objective:To investigate and analyze the correlation between acute carbon monoxide poisoning(ACOP)and meteorological factors,establish a regional ACOP meteorological forecast model,and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of ACOP.Methods:A total of 4181 ACOP patients admitted to Liuzhou People′s Hospital,Liuzhou Workers′Hospital,Liuzhou Traditional Chinese Medical Hospital and Hospital of Guangxi Liugang Medical Co.,LTD.from January 2015 to December 2017 were selected as the study subjects.The meteorological factors related data were collected during the same period.Correlation analysis was conducted.An ordered multi-classification Logistic regression model of ACOP risk grade was established.Fitting test and utility verification were performed on the model.Results:There were 4181 ACOP patients admitted to four comprehensive hospitals in Liuzhou from January 2015 to December 2017,1112 cases in 2015,accounting for 26.60%;1433 cases in 2016,accounting for 34.27%;1636 cases in 2017,accounting for 39.13%,and the incidence rate showed an annual increasing trend.The month of ACOP occurrence had obvious seasonal characteristics,and it was prevalent in winter and spring.The peak period of ACOP onset was from 21:00 to 3:00 on the next day.The daily average number of ACOPs was negatively correlated with mean temperature and average wind speed(P<0.001)and positive correlated with 24 h temperature difference(P<0.001).The fitting test was carried out on the model,and the statistics degree of freedom was 3 for chi-square distribution,and the model was statistically significant(P<0.001).For the accuracy rate of overall model implementation,the proportion of prediction error≤grade I was 82.47%.Conclusion:The occurrence of ACOP is closely related to the mean temperature,mean wind speed,24 h temperature difference and other meteorological factors.The establishment of regional ACOP prediction model based on meteorological factors can predict the risk level of ACOP and effectively prevent and control ACOP.

关 键 词：急性一氧化碳中毒 气象因素 流行病学 预报 气象服务 

分 类 号：R595.1[医药卫生—内科学]