数智化转型背景下物流企业投资项目价值评估——基于改进实物期权模型  

Value Assessment of Logistics Enterprise Investment Projects in Context of Digital and Intelligent Transformation Based on Improved Real Option Model

作　　者：董旭聪 DONG Xucong(School of Economics&Management,Guangxi University of Science&Technology,Liuzhou 545006,China)

机构地区：[1]广西科技大学经济与管理学院,广西柳州545006

出　　处：《物流技术》2023年第7期40-47,共8页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：数字化、智能化转型已成为物流企业高质量发展的重要驱动力,发掘数智化领域投资项目的期权价值对企业未来投资方向的深化布局具有重要意义。由于数智化投资项目未来收益具有较强的不确定性,运用灰色预测模型改进B-S模型中标的资产收益的测算方式,再运用改进后的B-S模型对案例企业数智化投资项目的实物期权价值进行评估,并引入案例企业同期常规投资项目,与数智化投资项目进行期权价值比较,分析不同投资项目期权价值产生差异的原因,为物流企业未来的投资方向提供合理建议。In this paper,in view of the strong uncertainty surrounding the future returns of investment in digital and intelligent projects,the gray forecasting model was used to modify the return on subject assets calculation method in the B-S model.Then the modified B-S model was used to assess the real option value of the digital and intelligent investment project of a company in a case study.Next,the conventional investment projects of the company in the same period were compared with the digital and intelligent investment projects in terms of real option value and an analysis was made on the causes for the difference between the two,which hopefully would provide reference for the future investment decisions of logistics enterprises.

关 键 词：物流企业 投资项目 期权价值 B-S实物期权模型 灰色预测模型 数智化 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学] F259.23F224