经济周期不同阶段财政支出结构优化研究——基于财政支出结构对经济增长的动态效应  

Research on the Optimization of Fiscal Expenditure Structure in Different Stages of the Economic Cycle: Based on the Dynamic Effect of Fiscal Expenditure Structure on Economic Growth

作　　者：金春雨[1,2] 徐悦悦 JIN Chunyu;XU Yueyue(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学与管理学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《东北大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期15-24,36,共11页Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(22AJL016)。

摘　　要：在扩展的内生经济增长模型框架下,利用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析了经济周期不同阶段财政支出结构的优化调整方向。研究结果表明,在经济衰退时期,当引发原因为金融危机时,提高经济建设支出和卫生支出比重的结构优化方向更有效地促进经济恢复,而当引发原因为新冠疫情时,提高卫生支出和文教支出的比重更有效;在经济恢复时期,提高文教支出和卫生支出比重的结构优化方向对经济增长调控更有效;在经济平稳时期,提高经济建设支出和文教支出比重的结构优化方向对经济增长调控更有效。Under the framework of the extended endogenous economic growth model,this paper uses SV-TVP-FAVAR model to analyze the optimization and adjustment direction of fiscal expenditure structure in different stages of the economic cycle.The results show that during the recession caused by the economic crisis,the structural optimization direction of increasing the proportion of economic construction expenditure and health expenditure is more effective in promoting economic recovery.However,when the cause is the COVID-19 Pandemic,it is more effective to increase the proportion of health expenditure,cultural expenditure and educational expenditure.In the period of economic recovery,the structural optimization direction of increasing the proportion of cultural and educational expenditure and health expenditure is more effective in regulating economic growth.In the period of economic stability,the structural optimization direction of increasing the proportion of economic construction expenditure and cultural and educational expenditure is more effective in regulating economic growth.

关 键 词：财政支出结构 经济增长 SV-TVP-FAVAR模型 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]