基于DEMATEL-AHDT的暴雨条件下地铁系统脆弱性影响因素分析  

Analysis of influencing factors of subway system vulnerability under rainstorm conditions based on DEMATEL-AHDT

作　　者：杨可 黄国忠 张磊[1,2] 宋哲 李浩轩[1,2] 高学鸿 YANG Ke;HUANG Guozhong;ZHANG Lei;SONG Zhe;LI Haoxuan;GAO Xuehong(School of Civil and Resource Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100085,China;Research Institute of Macro-Safety Science,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100085,China;Postgraduate Department,China Academy of Railway Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与资源工程学院,北京100085 [2]北京科技大学大安全科学研究院,北京100085 [3]中国铁道科学研究院研究生部,北京100081

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第6期22-33,共12页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研课题(2021YJ204);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(FRF-IDRY-21-016)。

摘　　要：【目的】城市地铁运营安全是城市公共安全的一个重要方面,鉴于近期城市地铁系统频繁出现暴雨倒灌的紧急灾害事件,极其有必要针对暴雨条件下城市地铁系统脆弱性的影响因素进行分析。为了提高地铁系统正常运营的安全性,明确地铁系统脆弱性的形成机制,【方法】首次确立了暴雨条件下城市地铁系统脆弱性关键影响因素指标体系,包括4个一级指标和12个二级指标,运用实验室综合决策法和对抗哈斯图技术(DEMATEL-AHDT)方法对暴雨条件下城市地铁系统脆弱性的影响因素进行重要性排序;其中重点探索了弦的最大值归一化、偏序规则和不同距离对影响因素重要性排序结果造成的影响。在开展专家调查问卷的基础上,得到了相应的多级阶梯对抗拓扑图和各影响因素权重环形图,并将各影响因素映射到风险传递四阶段中。【结果】结果显示:处于L_(0)阶梯上属于帕累托最优的影响因素分别为I_(1)、C_(2)、C_(3),其对应的权重分别为0.094、0.1048、0.0894。【结论】结果表明:暴雨等级、应急救灾处置和应急恢复能力是影响地铁系统脆弱性最直接的因素,且各影响因素在风险传递四阶段中存在着相互耦合的关系。研究成果为城市地铁系统在应对暴雨灾害场景下的应急防涝策略提供新思路。[Objective]The operation safety of urban subway is an important aspect of urban public safety.In view of the frequent occurrence of rainstorm backward emergency disaster events in urban subway system recently,it is extremely necessary to analyze the influencing factors of vulnerability of urban subway system under rainstorm conditions.In order to improve the safety of the normal operation of the subway system and clarify the formation mechanism of the vulnerability of urban metro system,[Methods]the index system of key factors influencing the vulnerability of urban metro system under rainstorm conditions is established for the first time,including 4 first-level indicators and 12 second-level indicators.The importance ranking of the factors influencing the vulnerability of urban metro system under rainstorm conditions is conducted by using laboratory comprehensive decision method and DEMATEL-AHDT method.The influence of string maximum normalization,partial order rule and different distance on the importance ranking result of influencing factors is emphatically explored.On the basis of the expert questionnaire,the corresponding multi-level antagonistic topology diagram and the weight ring diagram of each influencing factor are obtained,and each influencing factor is mapped to the four stages of risk transmission.[Results]The result show that the influencing factors belonging to Pareto optimality on L_(0) ladder are I__(1),C_(2) and C_(3),and their corresponding weights are 0.094,0.1048 and 0.0894,respectively.[Conclusion]The result show that rainstorm level,emergency relief disposal and emergency recovery ability are the most direct factors affecting the vulnerability of subway system,and there is a mutual coupling relationship between the influencing factors in the four stages of risk transmission.The research result provide a new idea for the emergency waterlogging prevention strategy of urban subway system under the scenario of rainstorm disaster.

关 键 词：地铁系统脆弱性 决策实验室法 对抗哈斯图技术 偏序 影响因素 降雨 应急防涝 极端天气 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]