基于EWM-AHP-DEMATEL模糊评价模型的区域水资源承载力研究  

EWM-AHP-DEMATEL fuzzy evaluation model-based study on regional water resources carrying capacity

作　　者：张杰 李建林[1,2] 李恩宽 白乐[3] ZHANG Jie;LI Jianlin;LI Enkuan;BAI Le(Institute of Resources&Environment,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean High Efficiency Utilization,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research of Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学资源环境学院,河南焦作454000 [2]煤炭安全生产与清洁高效利用省部共建协同创新中心,河南焦作454000 [3]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第6期46-59,共14页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家“十四五”重点研发计划(2021YFC3201103);河南省高校重点科研项目(22A170009);国家自然科学基金项目(42162021)。

摘　　要：【目的】针对目前区域水资源承载力评价中存在的评价指标体系不完善、指标权重不够客观的问题,以鄂尔多斯市为例,建立新的评价模型,为该地区合理优化配置水资源提供理论依据与参考。【方法】从区域水资源禀赋、开发利用情况、人类活动的影响、生态环境4个方面选取16个指标,构建水资源-社会-经济-生态耦合的综合评价体系。采用AHP-DEMATEL模型确定主观赋权;采用EWM法确定客观赋权;采用M(·,⊕)算子进行模糊运算,确定评价结果。【结果】结果显示:鄂尔多斯市2011—2021年水资源承载力大部分为Ⅲ级,属于临界超载水平,其中2012年、2016年、2021年水资源承载力等级上升至Ⅱ级,属于弱可承载水平。【结论】影响鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力的主要因素是当地水资源量、经济用水效率、居民节水意识、生态用水补给。2011—2021年鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力整体上呈现出波动上升趋势;EWM-AHP-DEMATEL模型确定的权重更加全面客观。[Objective]Aiming at the problems of imperfect evaluation index system and insufficient objective index weight in the current evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity,a new evaluation model is established by taking Ordos City as a study case,so as to provide the relevant theoretical basis and reference for the reasonable and optimal allocation of the water resources in the region.[Methods]For which 16 indexes are selected from four aspects,i.e.the regional water resources endowment,the status quo of development and utilization,the impact from human activities and the geological environment,and then a comprehensive evaluation system of water resources-society economy-ecology coupling is established.The subjective weighting is determined with AHP-DEMATEL model,the objective weighting is determined with EWM method and the fuzzy operation is made with M(·,⊕)operator to determine the evaluation result.[Results]The results show that most of the water resources carrying capacity of Ordos City from 2011 to 2021 is on the levelⅢand belongs to the critical overload level,in which the water resources carrying capacity levels in 2012,2016 and 2021 rise to the levelⅡand belong to the weak bearing level.[Conclusion]The main factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity in Ordos City are local water resources,economic water use efficiency,water-saving awareness of resident,ecological water supplement.From 2011 to 2021,the water resources carrying capacity of Ordos City exhibits an overall upward trend with fluctuation,thus the weights determined by EWM-AHP-DEMATEL model are more comprehensive and objective.

关 键 词：AHP-DEMATEL模型 主客观组合赋权 水资源承载力 模糊综合评价模型 水资源 人类活动 水资源承载能力 评价指标 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]