中美经贸关系的现实困境与未来选择  

The Realistic Dilemma and Future Choice of Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations

作　　者：闫小娜 YAN Xiaona

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2023年第7期3-14,M0002,共13页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：当中国作为“人类历史上最大的参与者”在经济快速发展和社会长期稳定方面取得两大奇迹时,习惯了冷战思维的美国在民粹主义思潮下发动了世界经济史上规模最大的“贸易战”。为进一步对中美贸易摩擦进行量化分析,文章通过新凯恩斯贸易DSGE模型对贸易摩擦政策进行模拟,分析加征关税、提高补贴、技术创新等政策冲击的影响。在此基础上,文章提出在大国博弈的“两难困境”情况下,中美经贸关系的重构应超越任何一个地区或国家视角和理想的秩序观,构建有管理的竞合框架,减少贸易和投资保护,加强在产业链供应链、科技创新等领域合作。中国则需要在全球贸易格局调整和全球产业链价值链重构中,进一步加强不同层次、不同区域和不同主体间的合作,不断提升中国的全球资源配置能力、国际规则制定能力、科技创新引领能力,以更高水平开放推动中国经济更高质量发展。When China,the largest participant in human history,achieved two miracles of rapid economic growth and sustained social stability,the United States who accustomed to Cold War thinking launched the largest"trade war"in world economic history.In order to quantify the trade friction between China and the United States,the paper simulates trade friction policies by constructing a new Keynesian trade DSCE model,analyzes the policy impacts such as imposing tariffs,increasing subsidies,and technological innovation.On this basis,the paper proposes that in the context of the"dilemma"of the great power game,the reconstruction of Sino-US economic and trade relations should go beyond the perspective of any region or country,build a managed competition and cooperation framework,reduce trade and investment protection,and strengthen cooperation in the fields of supply chain and technological innovation.China needs to further strengthen cooperation between different levels,regions,and entities in the process of adjusting the global trade pattern,continuously improve Chinese global resource allocation ability,international rulemaking ability,and technological innovation leadership ability,so as to promote high-quality development of Chinese economy with a higher level of openness.

关 键 词：政策模拟分析 相互依赖的世界 大国博弈“两难境地” 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济]