双边税收协定深化是抑制跨国公司避税的“利器”吗?:基于协定修订和条款异质性的量化研究  

Is the Deepening of Bilateral Tax Treaties a"Sharp Tool"to Restrain Tax Avoidance of Multinational Corporations?:Quantitative Research Based on BTT Revise and Term Heterogeneity

作　　者：余珮[1] 陈漪澜 YU Pei;CHEN Yilan

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2023年第7期62-76,M0003,共16页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“构建人类命运共同体进程中国际经济规则重建的理论逻辑及中国战略选择”(19ZAD054);国家社会科学基金一般项目“全球价值双环流下中国先进制造企业国际竞争力脆弱性的防范策略研究”(19BJY107)。

摘　　要：双边税收协定(BTT)围绕反避税的修订与条款细则深化正逐渐成为中国主动参与国际税收治理、构建国际税收新格局的重要方式。文章通过拓展A-S避税模型,推演BTT深化对跨国公司避税的作用,并采用多时点双重差分方法,以2008~2019年中国跨国公司为样本对理论假说进行检验。研究发现,BTT深化有助于抑制中国跨国公司避税,尤其是对于非国有、投资规模较小、投资区位较少的企业,以及对于向海外华人较少的东道国投资的企业,该抑制作用更明显。从作用机制来看,BTT深化通过“提升税收征管强度”而非“缓解委托代理问题”的渠道抑制避税。依据修订后的条款细则所构建的BTT深化指数证实了BTT深化的程度越大,越能有效抑制跨国公司的避税行为。此外,BTT深化产生了外部转移效应,即跨国公司将投资转移至BTT未修定的国家(地区)。文章所得结论为中国进一步完善BTT条款、深度参与国际税收规则制定和全球治理体系改革提供了科学依据,也对中国跨国公司合规与健康发展起到督促作用。At present,the revision and deepening of the terms and regulations of bilateral tax treaties(BTT)around anti-tax avoidance are gradually becoming an important way for China to actively participate in international tax governance and build a new pattern of international taxation.Based on this,this paper investigates an in-depth quantitative study on the impact of China's participation in deepening BTT provisions on tax avoidance behavior of multinational corporations.By expanding the A-S tax avoidance model,we deduce the role of BTT deepening in tax avoidance of multinational corporations,and use the time-varying DID model to test the theoretical hypothesis with the sample of Chinese A-share multinational corporations from 2008 to 2019.The research results confirm that BTT revision is helpful to restrain tax avoidance of Chinese multinational corporations,especially for nonstate-owned multinational corporations,multinational corporations with small investment scale and less investment location or multinational corporations with less overseas Chinese.From the perspective of mechanism,Chinese multinational corporations mainly avoid taxes by"enhancing the intensity of tax collection and management"rather than"alleviating the principal-agent problem".Furthermore,the BTT deepening index constructed according to the revised terms confirms that the greater the deepening degree of BTT can effectively restrain tax avoidance of multinational corporations.In addition,the deepening of BTT has produced an external transfer effect,that is,multinational companies transfer investment to countries(regions)where BTT has not been revised.The conclusions of this paper provide a scientific basis for China to further improve BTT,deeply participate in the formulation of international tax rules and the reform of global governance system,and also play a role in supervising the compliance and healthy development of Chinese multinational corporations.

关 键 词：双边税收协定深化 跨国公司避税 条款异质性 投资转移效应 

分 类 号：F811.4[经济管理—财政学] F276.7F125F275