基于蒙特卡洛多层次抽样的高速公路隧道管理新体系的消防安全评价  

Fire-Safety Evaluation of a Novel Highway Tunnel System Based on Multilevel Monte Carlo Sampling

作　　者：李浩 陈志涛 李朋 陆艳铭 陈靖 王高新 李舒 LI Hao;CHEN Zhitao;LI Peng;LU Yanming;CHEN Jing;WANG Gaoxin;LI Shu(Yunnan Transportation Planning,Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650041,Yunnan,China;China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,Jiangsu,China;Tsinghua University(Hefei)Institute of Public Security,Hefei 210061,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省交通规划设计研究院有限公司,云南昆明650041 [2]中国矿业大学,江苏徐州221116 [3]清华大学(合肥)公共安全研究院,安徽合肥210061

出　　处：《隧道建设（中英文）》2023年第7期1236-1245,共10页Tunnel Construction

基　　金：云南省交通投资建设集团有限公司科技创新项目(YCIC-YF-2021-19);云南省数字交通重点实验室(202205AG070008)。

摘　　要：为解决现有高速公路隧道管理体系存在的人员职责混乱、效率低下和误报率高等问题,将隧道管理站的“应急消防”和“巡检养护”职能迁出放入现场小型轻量化综合站,建立一种新型高速公路隧道管理体系;并利用蒙特卡洛多层次抽样算法对其消防安全进行评价,具体包括制定消防安全的5个成熟度等级;绘制消防安全评价的结构层次分析图,制定4个一级安全评价指标、9个二级安全评价指标和20个观测变量,分析20个各观测变量的概率统计特征及蒙特卡洛抽样值;最终将新体系与传统体系的消防安全性能等级进行对比。结果表明:新体系消防安全性能等级的总体评价结果趋向于卓越级,传统体系消防安全性能等级的总体评价结果趋向于良好级。因此,新体系的消防安全性能等级优于传统体系,具有更大优势。In existing highway tunnel management systems,issues related to confusion among personnel responsibilities,low efficiency,and high false alarm rates are encountered.To address these issues,the"emergency fire protection"and"inspection and maintenance"functions of the tunnel management station are assigned to a small and lightweight on-site comprehensive station and a novel management system is proposed.In addition,the fire safety of the novel system is assessed using a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm.In particular,five maturity levels of fire safety are formulated.A structural hierarchy analysis diagram for fire-safety evaluation is constructed based on four first-level safety evaluation indicators,nine second-level safety evaluation indicators,and 20 observation variables.Furthermore,the probability and statistical characteristics of the 20 observed variables and Monte Carlo sampling algorithm are analyzed.Finally,the fire-safety levels of the novel and traditional systems are compared.The evaluation results show that the fire-safety levels of the novel system are more reliable than those of the traditional system,indicating that the proposed system outperforms traditional counterparts.

关 键 词：高速公路隧道 管理体系 消防安全 蒙特卡洛 多层次抽样 

分 类 号：U45[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]