基于ECT-Dim的前沿技术识别方法——以养老环境辅助生活技术为例  

An Identification Method of Frontier Technology Based on ECT-Dim:The Case of Ambient Assisted Living Technology for Elderly

作　　者：刘春文 黄鲁成[1,2] 苗红 关永娟[3] 赵蓉 Liu Chunwen;Huang Lucheng;Miao Hong;Guan Yongjuan;Zhao Rong(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124;School of Economics&Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001;Publishing House of Electronics Industry,Beijing 100039;School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871;Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100043)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150001 [3]电子工业出版社,北京100039 [4]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [5]北京易华录信息技术股份有限公司,北京100043

出　　处：《情报杂志》2023年第8期77-82,76,共7页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“依靠科技创新应对人口老龄化跨学科研究”(编号:17ZDA119)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]前沿技术是技术创新的制高点,引导着研发的方向,对前沿技术进行及时地识别有助于尽早把握技术发展方向并做出布局。[研究方法]该文构建了基于ECT-Dim的前沿技术识别模型,提出技术新兴性、确定性与探索性测度方式,建立前沿技术筛选机制,以养老环境辅助生活技术为例进行实证研究。[研究结论]研究发现,提出的ECT-Dim模型,在前沿技术识别上更具有优势;养老环境辅助生活前沿技术集中于物理化工材料、电子器件、老年人建筑设计、助行器驱动与控制等领域。[Research purpose]Frontier technology is the commanding height of technological innovation,and guides the direction of R&D.Identifying frontier technologies in time helps to grasp the direction of technological development and make layouts as soon as possible.[Research method]This paper constructs a new frontier technology identification model based on ECT-Dim.We propose the measurement methods of technology emerging,certainty and exploration,establish a screening mechanism of frontier technologies,and conduct empirical research with ambient assisted living technology for elderly as an example.[Research conclusion]This research finds that the proposed ECT-Dim model has more advantages in identifying frontier technologies.The frontier technologies in ambient assisted living field focuses on physical and chemical materials,electronic devices,the building design for the elderly,the driving and control of the walker.

关 键 词：养老科技 环境辅助生活技术 前沿技术 技术交叉 技术识别 ECT-Dim模型 

分 类 号：G306[文化科学]