基于PSR-可拓云模型的油气管道脆弱性评价  

Vulnerability assessment of oil and gas pipelines based on PSR-extension cloud model

作　　者：赵江平[1] 倪雯宇 靳泽鹏 ZHAO Jiangping;NI Wenyu;JIN Zepeng(School of Resource Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2023年第8期11-17,共7页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：中国科学院重点部署项目(KGZD-EW-302);中国科学院科技服务网络计划项目(KTJ-SW-STS-159)。

摘　　要：为准确分析油气管道的脆弱性程度,提高管道系统风险抵抗能力,保障油气管道安全运输,提出了基于PSR-可拓云模型的油气管道脆弱性评价模型。基于PSR概念框架构建油气管道脆弱性评价指标体系;引入博弈论思想将层次分析法和CRITIC法计算所得权重进行最优组合。同时考虑油气管道脆弱性影响因子量化的模糊性,建立可拓云模型计算关联度,进而确定管道的脆弱性等级;最后,将模型应用于陕西省某现行管道,定量计算出该管道各管段的脆弱性值,并进行脆弱性排序。经过计算,该管道的综合脆弱性等级为较不脆弱,与实际情况相符。该模型不仅可以识别较为脆弱管段,还能把握脆弱性在油气管道系统中的传递和变化趋势,为油气管道的安全运行提供决策依据。In order to accurately analyze the vulnerability of oil and gas pipelines,improve the risk resistance of pip-eline system,and ensure the safe transportation of oil and gas pipelines,this paper proposes a vulnerability evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on PSR-extension cloud model.Based on the conceptual framework of PSR,an evaluation index system for oil and gas pipeline vulnerability is constructed;the game theory is introduced to optimally combine the weights calculated by the AHP and CRITIC methods.Besides,considering the fuzziness of the quantific-ation of the vulnerability factors of oil and gas pipelines,an extension cloud model is established to calculate the cor-relation degree,and then the vulnerability level of the pipeline is determined.Vulnerability value,and sort by vulnera-bility.After calculation,the comprehensive vulnerability level of the pipeline is less fragile,which is consistent with the actual situation.The model can not only identify relatively vulnerable pipeline sections,but also grasp the trans-mission and change trend of vulnerability in the oil and gas pipeline system,and provide decision-making basis for the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines.

关 键 词：油气管道 脆弱性分析 PSR模型 可拓云 博弈论 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]