基于结构方程模型-模糊认知图的矿山法地铁隧道施工安全风险分析  

Risk analysis in excavating subway tunnels using the mining method based on the structural equation model-fuzzy cognitive maps

作　　者：方俊[1] 郭佩文 朱科 谢定坤[1] 程国良 FANG Jun;GUO Peiwen;ZHU Ke;XIE Dingkun;CHENG Guoliang(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Science Hainan Research Institute,Wuhan University of Technology,Sanya 572000,Hainan,China;Quality and Safety Supervision Department of Wuhan Metro Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学海南研究院,海南三亚572000 [3]武汉地铁集团有限公司质量安全监察部,武汉430070

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第7期2191-2202,共12页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：海南省重大科技计划项目(ZDKJ2021024);三亚崖州湾科技城海南专项博士研究生科学研究基金项目(HSPHDSRF-2022-03-001)。

摘　　要：为了对矿山法地铁隧道施工全过程的安全风险进行动态演化分析,构建了矿山法地铁隧道施工安全风险评价指标体系,在结构方程模型建模与分析的基础上引入模糊认知图方法。首先,以扎根理论为指标筛选框架,识别出矿山法地铁隧道施工安全风险。然后,通过结构方程模型分析矿山法地铁隧道施工全过程的安全风险因素的因果关系及其路径系数。最后,通过模糊认知图进行动态预测与诊断推理。以武汉市某矿山法地铁隧道工程为例进行实证分析,综合风险预测分析与推理诊断两方面进行了评价。结果表明:矿山法地铁隧道施工过程各阶段的风险从大到小依次为隧道开挖、超前支护、结构防水、辅助措施、初期支护和二次衬砌,施工过程中应重点关注隧道超挖、欠挖,开挖循环进尺、步序确定不合理,隧道开挖方法选择不合理等关键风险,研究结果与武汉市某矿山法地铁隧道工程基本相符,验证了该模型的有效性。The research aims to analyze the dynamic evolution of risks in the whole process of excavating subway tunnels using the mining method.Addressing the notable shortcoming of the lack of evaluation in previous research,an evaluation index system for the risk during the excavation of subway tunnel using the mining method was established and the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps(FCMs)were introduced based on modeling and analysis of the Structural Equation Model(SEM).At first,the grounded theory was used as the framework for index selection to identify risks when excavating subway tunnels using the mining method.Then,the SEM was adopted to analyze the causal relationship of risks in the whole process of excavating subway tunnels using the mining method,to provide the verified causal relationship and its path coefficient.Finally,FCMs were used for dynamic prediction and diagnostic reasoning,simulating the evolution trend of risks in the whole process of excavating subway tunnels using the mine tunneling method,and evaluating risks in the above process by combining predictive analysis and diagnostic reasoning of risks.In addition,a subway tunnel construction project using the mining method in Wuhan City(Hubei Province,China)was taken as an example for empirical analysis.Results show that various stages in the whole construction process are listed in descending order as tunnel excavation,advanced support,structural waterproofing,supplementary measures,primary support,and secondary lining according to their risks.Key risks including over-excavation and under-excavation,unreasonable cyclical footage and sequence of excavation,and unreasonable tunnel excavation methods in the construction process should be paid particular attention to.The SEM-FCMs fused quantitative method decreases the subjectivity of risk evaluation and is favorable for implementing refined risk management.The research results are almost consistent with the practice of the subway tunnel excavated using the mining method in Wuhan City,which verifies the effectiveness o

关 键 词：安全工程 矿山法地铁隧道 施工安全风险 趋势预测 结构方程模型(SEM) 模糊认知图(FCMs) 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]